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Global liquids cost curve: shale is pushing out oil sands and Arctic, offshore is still in the race

June 12, 2014


Rystad Energy estimates that oil sands and the Arctic continue to be the most expensive resources, with an average breakeven price of 75-80 $/boe. The attractiveness of the resources has declined over the past years, mainly as a result of the introduction of North American shale. The break-even price of NA shale is estimated at an average of 60-70 $/boe.

Offshore is still in the race with lower break-even prices than U.S. and Canadian shale developments (ultra-deepwater at 55-60 $/boe; deepwater at 50-55 $/boe and offshore shelf at 40-45$/boe).

“Though offshore projects have recently experienced a slowdown in investment levels, this decline is part of a natural cycle, and activity levels are expected to increase again. Both Deepwater and Ultradeepwater are necessary to develop in order to meet our demand outlook of around 100 million boe/d in 2020,” says Espen Erlingsen, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy.

Rystad Energy’s demand outlook is just above IEA’s demand outlook of 98 million boe/d in 2020.