Facts & Figures
How UCube is made
Case Examples
Important Assumptions
How UCube is made
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UCube is the result of combining data, analysis, and modeling, with an ambition to be a complete upstream model.
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Data in UCube are collected from all available public sources - government sources, energy agencies, company reports and presentations, news, scientific books, and papers.
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All country sources are reviewed annually and so are annual reports of 1000 listed companies.
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Hundreds of updates are processed daily.
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All updates are subject to a two-step approval procedure before being uploaded to the database.
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Modeling is used to fill in gaps where data are missing.
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An important part of modeling is the forecasting of future production and economics.
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Although precise and clear, models may be very rich in detail based on thorough studies of the industry.
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As a general rule models are kept conceptually simple and as non-speculative as possible.
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Generally, models reflect and are based on current industry trends.
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Topics of current industrial interest are particularly focused upon.
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UCube is processed daily and updated externally at the start of each month.
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UCube is asset-based, implying that all data are at asset level, not at well or reservoir level.
Case Examples
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Macro Analysis
Use UCube to analyze the supply of oil and gas. You can compare production from different countries or from OPEC/non-OPEC, from deepwater developments, from unconventionals/conventionals, etc.
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Asset or Company Screening
UCube is made to be the ideal tool for asset screening. As an example, one can screen oil fields in North and West Africa that are producing early (producing < 25% of reserves) or are under development and that are not operated by majors or NOCs. UCube returns 69 assets with data on operator, ownership, water depth, forecasted production and economics, including tax regime. When screening for companies, make a selection of desired company type (segment), geographic presence, production levels, resource base, etc.
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Company Portfolios
With UCube you can evaluate company portfolios in terms of assets and geographic location of assets, balance in maturity (producing assets, assets under development, development potential, discovery potential, and exploration potential), and see how the portfolio distributes over a range of different dimensions (onshore/water depth, conventionals/unconventionals, self-operated/non-operated assets, working interest/entitlement production). Look also into upcoming investments and exposure to different tax regimes.
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Merging Portfolios
In UCube companies are merged in seconds. Select your company and the target company and drill into the portfolio of the merged company. Do the two portfolios match? For instance, does the portfolio provide a good balance in developed and undeveloped assets? And are there synergies in common technological challenges (deepwater, unconventionals, etc.)?
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Valuation
NPV is calculated for each asset as the discounted sum of free cash flow. Thus, NPV takes all particularities of each asset into account, such as remaining resources, upcoming investments, expected production profile, operational costs, and local tax regimes. UCube NPVs may differ systematically from the price tag in the market. However, the strength is that all assets are treated the same way, providing a unique indication of relative values of assets. The NPV for a group of assets or a company portfolio is the sum of NPVs of assets.
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Valuation at Different Oil Prices
UCube is processed for three different oil price scenarios to enable valuation at different oil prices - NPVs at 50, 80, and 120 USD/bbl in addition to the base case. The user can interpolate between these values to obtain estimates for other oil prices. Another indication of value are break-even prices, which are oil prices calculated assuming a zero NPV.
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Benchmarking
Companies can easily be benchmarked on reserves, production, investment, NPV, etc. Choose desired parameters and splits to benchmark selected companies. The illustration shows the sum-of-parts upstream value for majors emphasizing the contributions from different regions.
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Tax Regimes
UCube includes more than 700 different tax regimes. Study government take to learn about and see the effect of tax regimes in different countries. Our illustration shows tax levels for some selected comparable assets in different regions. However, this is reflecting only half of the picture. Tax is often balanced with risk, investment levels, and upfront payments. Consult field economics to see effects of different tax regimes.
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Exploration Analysis
You can benchmark companies or different regions by comparing discovery trends, i.e. discovered volumes per year and cost of exploration. Find where specific companies are investing in exploration and map players of specific areas. The provided example shows a comparison of how much majors are going to spend on exploration in different regions over the next five years.
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Important Assumptions
UCube has set specific assumptions on prices, rates, and scenarios.
Oil Prices
The oil price in UCube is based on the Brent and WTI forward curves, whereby WTI applies to North America. These forward curves are updated at the beginning of each month. The oil price is reduced for assets with low API or high total acid oil qualities.
Gas Prices
Gas prices are based on the Henry Hub forward curves for North America. For the rest of the world the gas price is linked to the oil price by a factor depending on the access to the market, ranging from 8 to 50 (i.e. Gas price [USD/kcf]*factor = Oil price [USD/bbl]).
Oil Price Scenarios
Production and economics are calculated for three reference scenarios. Currently, these are 50, 80, and 120 USD/bbl indicating the value in 2012. The oil price is flat in real terms.
Inflation Rate
An inflation rate of 2.5% is used for costs and for oil prices when extending the forward curve. In addition, costs are subject to cost cycling, i.e. costs are higher at higher oil prices.
Discount Rate
A discount rate of 10% is used for calculations of present values.
Break-even Prices
Break-even prices are calculated as the oil price (flat in real terms) that produces zero NPV.