Peak Fossil Fuels

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Rystad Energy follows demand for fossil fuels closely, with bottom-up supply and demand for oil and natural gas, coupled with transition scenarios for displacement from electric vehicles, renewables and more.  

Global coal demand peaked in 2012, but did experience a short-lived comeback in 2018. Peak oil demand was slated for the late 2020s before the Covid-19 pandemic decimated global energy markets in early 2020, which may have effectively propelled this peak forward to 2019. Natural gas demand will likely take a smaller hit than oil during 2020 and is expected to come back and continue its trajectory to become the dominant fossil fuel by around 2030, before inevitably following its fossil cousins into decline some years later.

Data

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We provide global bottom-up databases covering:

  • Supply potential, cost competitiveness and investment trends across all energy supply sources  
  • Detailed overview of new vehicle sales and fleet by fuel type (ICE and EVs)

Advisory

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  • Support businesses, governments, financial players and others in understanding the long term demand of fossil fuels based on observable data points through: 
    • Renewable displacement of fossil power generation 
    • Electric vehicle displacement of oil based fuels 
    • Hydrogen and other low carbon fuels 
    • Alternative petrochemical feedstock and recycling 
  • Analyzing the cost competitiveness and attractiveness of the various parts of the supply stack to understand implications for local natural gas markets, specific crude grades and differentials, or to understand the inherent risk in a specific portfolio of fossil fuel related assets 
  • Our advisory services are spread across 15+ offices globally, providing deep local insights and strong industry networks