The Strait of Hormuz crisis has reshaped the global crude oil balance in 2026. But the bigger challenge may lie ahead.

Rystad Energy's latest crude oil balance update revises 2026 demand down significantly, with global markets expected to return to oversupply in July. Refinery run cuts across Asia, the Middle East and Russia are driving the shift, while trade flows are already adapting to a blocked Strait — with South American producers redirecting exports and the US posting record-high shipments.

Yet with signals of a potential US-Iran deal easing some price pressure, attention is turning to what comes next. Rystad Energy projects a 5 million bpd oversupply in 2027 as pre-war supply levels resume and demand recovery falls short — raising a critical question: will crude demand ever fully return to pre-war levels?

In this whitepaper:

• The revised 2026 crude oil balance and what is driving the shift

• How trade flows are adapting to a blocked Strait of Hormuz

• Brent price outlook for 2Q–3Q26 and the factors shaping it

• Why 2027 poses a sharper oversupply challenge than 2026

This report is powered by Rystad Energy Oil Macro Analytics.