As the war in the Middle East reshapes global oil flows and pushes Brent crude forecasts from $60 to $87 per barrel, the fragility beneath the surface of global energy markets has never been more apparent. In partnership with the Offshore Technology Conference (OTC), our experts examines how this 2026 supply shock — driven by the war and physical bottlenecks stranding an estimated 10 million barrels per day — has exposed structural vulnerabilities in a market that only months ago projected a 3 million bpd surplus. With offshore production already declining at roughly 6% per year, the industry must add nearly 1.7 million barrels per day of new capacity annually just to maintain current output. And with deepwater projects taking five to seven years to bring online, the investment decisions made today will determine whether global supply remains stable heading into the 2030s and beyond.

The whitepaper examines three demand scenarios and dives into:

• The 2026 supply shock and how the war in the Middle East has turned a surplus into an immediate crisis
• 2050's production gap and how many barrels the industry must develop
• Offshore production as the backbone of future supply and why
• Where capital is moving for long-term investments and the need for those investments to secure supply stability

Download the full whitepaper to understand the scale of the production gap, and what it means for investment strategies through 2050.