Brent crude surged from around $70 per barrel (bbl) in mid-February to almost $120 bbl in late March before retreating to around $80 bbl following the ceasefire and signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran. The agreement marks the start of a diplomatic process, not the end of the crisis.

The Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fifth year, continues to weigh on oil and gas markets through intensifying conflict and infrastructure attacks, with no credible diplomatic off-ramp visible in the near term. The overall risk landscape has become more concentrated around a smaller number of high-impact, high-likelihood flashpoints.

This condensed report examines the top geopolitical risks shaping energ markets over the next six to 12 months.