Renewed US-Iran hostilities have pushed the geopolitical risk premium back into gas prices. LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels, even as the first visibly laden QatarEnergy vessel in months exited the Gulf this month.Meanwhile, Europe is racing against the clock. Storage is at about 67% full, well short of the five-year average of around 84%, with Germany particularly exposed at around 55%. The injection window is narrowing fast, and the reopening of the inter-basin arbitrage could pull flexible Atlantic cargoes toward Asia just when Europe needs them most.

In Asia, buyers who resisted prices of $27-$28 per MMBtu a week ago are back in the market, with India and Bangladesh leading renewed procurement. Our latest Gas and LNG Market Report covers: