Global refining splits along new lines as the Hormuz shock exposes a system under strain
05 August 2026
In March 2026, the US-Iran conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz and stripped 14.5 million bpd of crude from the market overnight. Product prices spiked 180 percent at their peak, and even after strategic releases and rerouted trade, the market remains structurally short by about 4 million bpd of crude and 3.8 million bpd of refined products.
That shock landed on an industry already dividing along new lines. Between 2015 and 2026, 59 refineries opened and 83 closed, shifting capacity toward Asia, the Middle East and Africa while Europe posted a clear net decline. Margins turned product-specific, with jet fuel and diesel cracks leading 1H 2026 while naphtha and high-sulfur fuel oil stayed weak, rewarding refineries that can upgrade lower-value streams.
Our 1H 2026 Refining Market Review and Outlook examines what these shifts mean for competitiveness, margins and long-term strategy across the global refining sector.
What the Strait of Hormuz closure revealed about how thin global crude and product balances really are
Why the US Gulf Coast keeps outcompeting refineries twice its size
The 59 refineries built since 2015, and the 83 that could not keep up
How jet fuel and diesel cracks are pulling ahead while naphtha and high-sulfur fuel oil stall