Renewed fighting in the Middle East has pushed gas markets back into crisis. US strikes on Iranian targets, Houthi advances on the Bab el-Mandeb strait and a shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline have combined to send Brent above $100 per barrel and LNG prices racing toward $30 per MMBtu, erasing the price gap that once separated European and Asian buyers.

The impact on supply is significant and growing. Rystad Energy now estimates conflict-related LNG production losses from Qatar at 64.8 Mtpa in 2026 and 22.9 Mtpa in 2027, a sharp increase from last month's figures. In response, we have raised our 2026 price forecasts for TTF and Northeast Asian spot LNG by $1.0 per MMBtu, to $16.0 and $17.0 respectively, as low storage levels in Europe and uncertainty over winter arbitrage keep buyers on edge.

The longer-term picture tells a different story. Supply and demand are expected to rebalance by 2028, and from 2029 the market is set to tip into oversupply, peaking at 81 Mtpa in 2032. For buyers and producers alike, the challenge is navigating a market that is tight today but loosening fast.

Our full report unpacks the regional price moves, supply disruptions and demand shifts behind these numbers, along with Rystad Energy's price forecasts through 2040.