PJM capacity auction clears at cap again
21 July 2026
For the third auction running, PJM's capacity market cleared at its price ceiling, and the number underneath that ceiling tells a different story than the headline. A 6.8 GW gap opened between the capacity that cleared and the target PJM needs to keep the lights on, even as PJM's own estimate shows what the market would have cleared with no cap at all.
Reserve margins have now fallen below PJM's target for two auctions in a row, and the exposure looks different depending on where you sit. Ratepayers, investors, developers, and the power buyers competing for scarce capacity are all reading this result through a different lens.
Our whitepaper examines what PJM's capped auction result means for reliability, costs and investment across the Americas power market.
What PJM's uncapped price estimate reveals about how tight the market really is
Why one transmission-constrained zone previews what's coming next
The specific projects standing between now and a real reserve margin recover
How reliability charges keep rising even as the clearing price holds flat
What backstop procurement reform could change before the December auction