If your escalation provisions were written before 2026, they may already be behind.

Subsea activity is approaching a cyclical peak at the same moment input costs are moving up again. This is the window when vendor pricing power is highest and commercial terms are hardest to secure, and when having an independent view of what equipment should cost matters most.

Macro-driven should-cost models powered by Rystad Energy's Price Inflation solution and Procurement Cost Calculator show that the latest inflation cycle is fundamentally different from 2021–2022. That cycle was driven by steel and alloys. The current uplift spans materials, labor, financing, energy, and manufacturing inputs simultaneously, making it harder to isolate in procurement negotiations and more likely to result in sustained increases.

Marine fuel prices add a further layer of pressure independent from manufacturing inputs. A procurement model that does not separate these two cost signals will understate total delivered project cost.

The 2027 award peak is approaching. Download the report to ensure your cost assumptions are built for the market you are about to negotiate in.