US forfeits offshore wind as China dominates market into 2030

As the US aims to decouple from Chinese supply chains by doubling down on its domestic oil and gas resources, industries such as offshore wind have faced a barrage of economic challenges, from stop-work orders, to tax break rollbacks and rising inflationary costs. Despite unfavorable conditions in the US, Rystad Energy research shows new global offshore wind capacity will reach 16 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2025 due to projects already underway, with two thirds of them being developed in China. By 2030, Rystad Energy forecasts China’s offshore wind projects will claim 45% of the world’s cumulative capacity, making it difficult for the US market to compete in the long term, regardless of policy reversals. 

It is now clear that the energy policy shift in the US not only halts or slows progress on offshore wind projects that were previously greenlit but pushes European wind developers away from US investment. The US-China supply chain may be decoupled, but China’s position as a global renewables leader may have only been strengthened because of it.

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Some clear effects are already emerging. US renewable energy investments have plunged 36% year-on-year so far in 2025, whereas European investments are rising as companies redirect capital away from the US. Stop work orders were issued for both Orsted’s Rhode Island offshore wind development and Equinor’s New York project, with the latter reaching a deal that lifted the administration’s ban. A federal judge has reversed the order on Orsted’s Revolution project, with the question of a continued legal battle waiting to be answered. To remain attractive to investors, Orsted and companies like it must evaluate all options for offshore wind developments and their overall US presence.  

On the flipside, China-based CNOOC stated that it is staging its offshore wind portfolio expansion, with a key project in the 1.5 GW Hainan CZ7 aimed to be commissioned before 2030. The project is approved and is to be the first utility-scale project for CNOOC. For European energy companies with less US exposure, their reliance on China and other nations will only be enhanced.  

The chances of creating an alternate, renewables-driven supply chain to compete with China are low, with Western original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) flocking back to the country’s favorable business environment after fleeing in 2020. The challenge is formidable: an analysis of turbine platforms with IEC-type certification commonly used across Europe, for example, reveals that approximately 25% of the manufacturing sites producing key components for Western OEMs are in China.  

Europe’s wind industry has taken notice, and policymakers are mobilizing to help reduce the reliance on Chinese imports and beef up the domestic wind energy supply chain. Officials hope such measures will encourage manufacturing buildouts while keeping costs in check.

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Contacts

Alexander Fløtre 
Senior Vice President, Head of Offshore Wind Research 
Phone: +47 24 00 42 00 
alexander.flotre@rystadenergy.com 

 
Andrea Scassola 
Vice President, Supply Chain 
Phone: +47 24 00 42 00 
andrea.scassola@rystadenergy.com 

 
Katie Keenan 
Senior Media Relations Manager  
Phone: +1 713 301 9300 
katie.keenan@rystadenergy.com 

About Rystad Energy

Rystad Energy is a leading global independent research and energy intelligence company dedicated to helping clients navigate the future of energy. By providing high-quality data and thought leadership, our international team empowers businesses, governments and organizations to make well-informed decisions.

Our extensive portfolio of products and solutions covers all aspects of global energy fundamentals, spanning every corner of the oil and gas industry, renewables, clean technologies, supply chain and power markets. Headquartered in Oslo, Norway, with an expansive global network, our data, analysis, advisory and education services provide clients a competitive edge in the market. 

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