December 2015 UPDATE
|UPCOMING EVENTSRegional upstream analysis: The Americas and Europe
Jarand Rystad, CEO
March 17-18, 2016
Save the date!
February 3, 2016Shale Swings the World, but Who Swings Shale?
Per Magnus Nysveen, Senior Partner & Head of Analysis
Argus Americas Crude Summit
January 20-22, 2016
Houston, United States
The oil market downturn, industry challenges and future market developments
Jon Fredrik Müller, Senior Project Manager
Oil: Benefits & Costs of the Low Price
December 15, 2015
WebinarsWell Economics in the US Shale: Past, Present, Future
Content WebinarDate: January 14, 2016
Time: 5.00pm-5.30pm CETSpeaker: Artem Abramov, Senior AnalystNorth American Shale Well Data (NASWellData)
Date: January 14, 2016
Time: 4.00pm-4.30pm CET
Speaker: Julia Weiss, VP Marketing
Webinar RecordingE&P 2015 Review
More eventsWE ALL AT RYSTAD ENERGY WISH YOU A FESTIVE SEASONCompany Newsletter Subscription: If you are not yet a subscriber to this email, please fill out the subscription form.
|INDUSTRY VIEWFuture supply security at risk as oil service capacity continues to be cut
While the global market is currently oversupplied with crude, Rystad Energy believes this could be turned upside down over the next few years. Rystad Energy research shows that while the oil industry needs to replace 34 billion barrels of crude every year – equal to current consumption, investment decisions for only 8 billion barrels were made in 2015. This amount is less than 25% of what the market requires long-term.Strong growth for Norwegian oil service companies in 2014
In 2014, Norwegian oil service companies had total revenues of 527 billion NOK, which was an all-time record high. About 195 billon NOK (37 %) of this revenue originated from customers outside Norway.
2014 was the first year since the financial crisis of 2007/2008 where international revenue grew faster than the domestic revenue. While revenue from international customers increased 17 % from 2013 to 2014, revenue from Norwegian customers grew at only 4 %. There are several explanations for this change.
"Rystad Energy estimates oil production from the US will only drop 3% from peak to exit 2015" by Per Magnus Nysveen, Senior Partner & Head of Analysis, and Leslie Wei, Analyst
(Published by Oil & Gas Financial Journal, December Edition)The behavior of North American shale is a key driver for the balancing of the oil markets in the short term. Official results have proven the resiliency of shale in 2015 as production values continued to climb for the first half of the year despite the ~50% drop in the rig count. While production will decrease for the remainder of the year, the drop is expected to be minimal due to the efficiency and shifts in operational approaches."Mapping Global Shale Potential" by Roman Boros, Senior Analyst
(Published by Oil & Gas Financial Journal, December Edition)Direct extraction of oil and gas from the shale source rock is currently only actively developed in the Americas (United States, Canada and Argentina), however, other nations have the geological capabilities to develop shale resources too. Rystad Energy has studied the geology and economic conditions for more than 200 known shale formations outside North America."Another bearish surprise appears far behind the US land rig count," a comment by Per Magnus Nysveen, Senior Partner & Head of AnalysisAs total US land rig counts takes a new dip, investors again see light in the end of the tunnel for oil markets. We find global oil prices should soon rebound sharply, but likely not before another significant dip for the WTI benchmark through December and January.The explanation lies deeply underneath the rig count statistics, in data that are far more opaque to investors and traders. Whereas production typically comes 6-9 months after drilling a well, first oil is flowing just a few weeks after a well has been fracked by the crews managing the hydraulic pressure pumping. "North Sea E&P: Decline coming to an end" by Olga Kerimova, Analyst, and Theodora Batoudaki, Analyst
(Published by PESGB Newsletter, December Edition)Production from the North Sea is expected to remain constant over the next five years as operators have been focusing on redeveloping mature discoveries, reversing the production decline of the last decade. From 2020, Johan Sverdrup will play a significant role in maintaining this trend. This article assesses the North Sea E&P status and outlook, illustrated by the three key drivers: production, exploration success and spending."Middle East, one of the most stable E&P markets" by Espen Erlingsen, VP Analysis
(Published by GEOExPro, December Edition)
The Middle East is the largest producing area within the E&P industry, with a total production of around 41 million boe/d in 2015, while Western Europe is the largest offshore market in terms of spending. These markets are expected to behave differently during the current downwards cycle.Gullkronen 2016
The Award Show of the Year
Rystad Energy's own Gullkronen awards companies, teams or people, who have shown outstanding achievements on the NCS during the previous year. The jury consists of industry and Rystad Energy representatives.
Gullkronen 2016 will take place on Wednesday, 03 February 2015 at Wallmans Oslo, Norway.
Nine prizes will be awared - four for E&P achievements, three for the oil service sector and an "Honour Award".
Find the winners of Gullkronen 2015 here
For more information:
Marketing Manager, Operationsanders.email@example.com
Rystad Energy is an independent oil and gas consulting services and business intelligence data firm offering global databases, strategy advisory and research products for E&P and oil service companies, investors and governments. We are headquartered in Oslo, Norway, with additional research teams in India. Further presence has been established in Norway (Stavanger), the UK (London), USA (New York & Houston), Russia (Moscow), Brazil (Rio de Janeiro), Africa as well as South East Asia.