Net Zero by 2050 – What will it take?
The International Energy Agency created waves across the global energy industry through the launch of its recent report “Net Zero by 2050 – A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector”. The report shows a way to achieve net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, which also is compatible with a 50% probability of limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5°C.
Rystad Energy conducted a similar exercise in recent months, the findings of which were unveiled early May.
While there are striking similarities between the two reports on many fronts, there are also wide discrepancies among some of the main elements. Most notably perhaps, Rystad Energy is much more bullish on the rise of solar PV capacity – predicting twice as much capacity as the IEA expects by 2050 – whereas the Paris-based agency expects far more power generation from nuclear and biomass by the middle of the century. Furthermore, the IEA's scenario sees oil demand declining to 71 million barrels per day (bpd) already in 2030 and further to 24 million bpd by 2050, and it reasons that there is no need to develop any new oil fields henceforth. In contrast, Rystad Energy’s comparable scenario sees oil demand at 94 million bpd in 2030 and 36 million bpd in 2050, and forecasts a need for new projects to deliver about 10 million bpd of oil from new fields in the 2030s. We actually expect faster growth of EVs than IEA does, but we do not share IEAs view that behavioral change and biofuels will be able to remove 23 million bpd of demand by 2030.
At Rystad Energy we are continuously expanding the scope and depth of our objective analytics and products related to the Energy Transition and along the entire energy spectrum. We look forward to sharing exciting updates with you in the coming weeks and months.