October 2020 UPDATE

 

Rystad Energy Insights is a monthly newsletter that consolidates our industry and market views and provides an update of highlighted events and webinars.

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INDUSTRY VIEW

"One quarter of the global floater fleet could be scrapped as Covid-19 accelerates restructuring"
The new downturn that the Covid-19 pandemic has brought upon the oil and gas industry has put many sectors in financial distress. Restructuring in the already-stretched offshore drilling market will accelerate, a Rystad Energy analysis shows.
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"The 2021 oil and gas price gamble: US producers cut oil hedge by 25%, resilient gas only 4% lower"
US E&P companies have so far hedged 41% of their total forecasted 2021 oil output at an average price floor of $42 per barrel (Nymex WTI equivalent), lower than this year’s floor of $56 per barrel, a Rystad Energy analysis shows.
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"North American oil and gas bankruptcy debt reached an all-time high in 2020 and is set to grow"
The associated debt from North American oil and gas bankruptcies in 2020 has already reached an all-time high and is set to grow even further this year as the wave of Chapter 11 filings continues, a Rystad Energy report projects, analyzing industry data from law firm Haynes and Boone.
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"Oil production costs reach new lows, making deepwater one of the cheapest sources of novel supply"
A comprehensive Rystad Energy analysis of oil production costs has revealed that the average breakeven price for all unsanctioned projects has dropped to around $50 per barrel, down around 10% over the last two years, and 35% since 2014.   
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"Asia-Pacific’s renewable energy capacity set for 58% growth over five years, driven by solar"
Installed capacity of renewable energy in the Asia-Pacific region is set for a major boost in the next five years, to 815 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 from 517 GW this year, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. 
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"Reserve revisions on the UKCS doom hydrocarbon output never to rise above 2 million boepd again"
Hydrocarbon production on the United Kingdom’s continental shelf (UKCS) has dropped steadily since its peak at 4.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 1999, never exceeding 2 million boepd after 2010. 
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"Fragile oil and gas interests at stake for Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey in Nagorno-Karabakh"
Nagorno-Karabakh’s close proximity to key Azeri oil and gas infrastructure means that there will be more at stake if the region’s conflict with Armenia escalates further and jeopardizes key export pipelines. 
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"Bracing for an oil and gas spending rebound in 2021, Chinese yards outcompete Asian rivals on costs"
Offshore investments are expected to rebound from 2021 and oil and gas operators will be looking for yards to build new facilities, with 40% of these contracts expected to be floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) units in the next five years.
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"Geothermal power set to climb to 24 GW by 2025, upcoming projects to attract $25 billion"
Installed geothermal capacity is forecast to expand in the next five years as energy companies diversify into alternative markets, driven by the accelerating energy transition. 
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"Once coal’s future haven, Bangladesh is now set to leave developers and importers in hot water"
Bangladesh’s 2016 energy plan showed some 20 gigawatts (GW) of coal power capacity to be developed in the next two decades. Now, the government is scaling back the coal-drive dramatically and capacity will peak at 7.3 GW in 2025. 
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"Green hydrogen plans already top 60 GW, but less than half is likely to operate by 2035 as costs bite"
Proposed green hydrogen projects are surging across the globe as governments seize opportunities afforded by post-pandemic green stimulus packages. 
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"NextEra leads top utility wind and solar PV owners in the US"
Despite federal resistance towards wind and solar development, the renewable energy sector in the United States is set for impressive growth, an increase which could accelerate depending upon the outcome of the upcoming November presidential election. 
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"US tight oil Tier 1 drilling share may exceed 50% of total in 2020"
US tight oil Tier 1, or premium, inventory activity has increased from 47% to 49% as a share of total onshore liquids drilling this year, as operators high-grade their acreage amid investor pressure to lower costs and improve efficiency, according to Rystad Energy estimates.  
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"North American shale oil production is poised for further decline next year"
Light tight oil production in North America has been hit hard this year as a result of the dramatic fall in oil prices caused by global oversupply and demand destruction. Activity levels and output are anticipated to show notable decline in 2020 that is likely to continue into 2021 as well. 
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"Brazil on path to recovery as retirements pick up pace in the global floater fleet"
After a combination of low oil prices, corruption scandals and general stagnation in the economy, Brazil went from being the world’s largest deepwater drilling market – with a record high demand of 78 semi-submersibles and drillships in 2012 – and proceeded to shrink to a low of only 13 active rigs in October 2019.
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