Top Surprises of 2021 | What's next for Lukoil? | Poland’s Oil & Gas Outlook |
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| | Espen Erlingsen, Partner and Head of Upstream Research |
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| | As we approach 2022, I wanted to take the opportunity to reflect on how the upstream industry has performed this year. Some key observations: - A much more investment conservative shale industry
- Low exploration success
- A slower than expected recovery from sanctioning activity
- Record high profit for the upstream industry
Overall, it seems like the recovery in the E&P industry is taking a longer time than we predicted, and E&P companies remain cautious and want to protect their cashflows. For the upstream team at Rystad Energy, 2021 has been colored by the energy transition. We have developed several new analyses on how different players are planning for the transition. We also tried to quantify the risk under different scenarios. In addition, we also strengthened our core methodology for upstream forecasting by including a well-by-well production forecast. This has enabled our clients to get a global overview of well-level information. In 2022, we are looking forward to launching our asset-level emission cube. This will enable you to study upstream emissions, right down to field level. Thank you for reading, and from all of us in the Upstream team, a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! |
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Rystad Energy Press Releases • Triggering more lockdowns, Omicron could cost oil demand almost 3 million bpd in early 2022
• US shale spending set to shake off uncertainty and jump 19% in 2022, topping $83 billion
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Rystad Energy Product Highlights • UCube (Upstream Database)
Get full visibility into the global oil and gas industry through topical and fact-based analytics, highly detailed data and leading-edge advisory services. >>Learn more • ECube (Exploration Database) Complete, global well-by-well exploration database tailored specifically for exploration analysis. >>Learn more • Upstream Analytics Stay up to date on all aspects of the upstream industry through our trends reports, asset reports and value-adding commentaries prepared by leading industry experts. >>Learn more • Upstream M&A Cube Get full visibility into global oil and gas M&A activity through topical and fact-based analytics, highly detailed data and leading-edge advisory services. >>Learn more |
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| What were the top five surprises of 2021 in the upstream industry? With 2021 drawing to a close, how has the oil and gas industry fared in terms of exploration success in the past 12 months, and what does the project sanctioning pipeline look like for next year? Have North American shale players loosened the purse strings amid the strong recovery in oil prices from the pandemic-induced lows of last year or did they keep spending in check? As the industry continues to emerge from the considerable shadow cast by Covid-19, Rystad Energy looks back at a challenging year for the upstream sector, highlighting the five most surprising industry developments we observed through 2021. Read more here |
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Independent/Integrated outlook: Lukoil pursuing foreign expansion drive In this week’s series on independent/integrated companies, we focus on the strategy and long-term plans of Russia’s second-largest oil producer, Lukoil. A significant part of the company’s current production in the domestic market comes from mature fields with rapidly decreasing output and Lukoil is employing enhanced oil recovery techniques and has increased production drilling in an effort to arrest the decline. In the medium term, the company plans to enhance hard-to-recover oil output, develop new fields in the Caspian Sea and Baltic Sea, and conduct exploration near existing fields and licenses where it has farmed in over recent years. Russia currently contributes 72% of the company's overall production, but this is predicted to shrink to 62% by 2030. In this commentary, we will take a deep dive into the company's future strategy, key upstream projects in the pipeline, its production outlook, and how it is embracing the energy transition. Read more here |
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Poland targets oil and gas output growth as bell tolls for coal Poland looks set to increase domestic oil and gas production as Continental Europe’s fourth-largest producer trains its sights on phasing out coal by the middle of this century. The country relies heavily on fossil fuel imports to meet demand but has in the past decade been reducing it heavy dependence on Russia for oil and gas volumes. The country’s energy landscape is also braced for change as a trio of domestic companies look to get a mega-merger deal over the finishing line next year. Poland has been an oil and gas producer since the 1950s, growing its output from around 5,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) to a current level of some 91,000 boepd, making it the fourth-largest produced in Continental Europe after Italy, Ukraine and Romania. Gas is the country’s main produced hydrocarbon resource and Poland has both conventional and unconventional energy sources, with conventional being dominant. Read more here |
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