November 2014 NCS E&P Update
NCSAtlas: provides monthly up-to-date information on licenses and field activities on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, including area-by-area reviews, exploration drilling activity, reserves/resources benchmarks, production profile outlooks and monthly feature topics (e.g. asset transaction).

NCSAtlas Insights
November 2014

• Quarterly resource placement
• PGNiG - Total transaction
• J. Sverdrup impact assessment
• Talisman transactions

Future Well Count

Production profile outlook 2025


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Key NCS Takeaways November 2014
  • Alta discovery in the Barents Sea with 125-400 mmboe, operated by Lundin Petroleum. The discovery is made in PL609 20 km northeast of Gohta discovery. 85-310 mmboe oil, rest is gas. Lundin with 40%, partners are RWE (30%) and Idemitsu (30%). Extensive continued exploration of the license in 2015 communicated by Lundin (two appraisal wells on Alta and a wildcat on the Neiden prospect). Johan Castberg and Alta/Gohta most likely to be developed as separate field centers, unless hydrocarbons are sent to shore
  • The oil price decline accelerated in October on continued bearish news for near term supply-demand balances. Brent oil price down from 94 USD/bbl Oct 1 to 83 USD/bbl Nov 5. Demand growth has been revised lower, US shale production growth has shown no sign of slowing and OPEC production grew in September. Saudi Arabia has lowered official selling prices twice, spurring speculation of a “price war” and in-action from OPEC at the upcoming 27 November meeting, despite an increasingly over-supplied 2015 oil balance
  • PGNiG acquired assets from Total for USD 317 million: Morvin (6% ownership), Vale (24%), Vilje (24%), Gina Krog (8%) and four exploration licenses. 2014 production from these assets around 10 kboe/d (95% liquid). 2P resources of 33 mmboe gives multiple of 9.6 USD/boe
  • National Budget with updated estimates on ongoing developments. The biggest changes are Goliat (NOK +7.4 billion to total NOK 46.7 billion), Knarr (+4.1 to 16.2), Polarled (-2.6 to 22.6, also due to cancelled Kristin connection), Edvard Grieg (+1.4 to 23.8)
  • Update on Johan Sverdrup development in relationship with the impact assessment (“Konsekvensutredning”). Capex phase 1 estimated to NOK 100-120 billion, 315-380 kboe/day production. Full development (phase 1 and 2) capex NOK 170-220 billion and 550-650 kboe/d production
  • After 10 years as CEO Statoil announced that Helge Lund will leave his position. He is appointed as the new CEO of BG Group. Eldar Sætre is the new acting CEO of Statoil

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Rystad Energy is an independent oil and gas consulting services and business intelligence data firm offering global databases, strategy advisory and research products for E&P and oil service companies, investors and governments. We are headquartered in Oslo, Norway, with additional research teams in India. Further presence has been established in the UK (London), USA (New York & Houston), Russia (Moscow), for Africa as well as South East Asia.