How $80 oil postpones the floater recovery
RYSTAD ENERGY PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS
Oilfield Service Databases
DCube (Demand Database): Historical and forecasted opex and capex for global oil and gas fields, split on supplier segment and geography

The latest DCube version (October 2014) reflects updates on Angola and Norway and other offshore projects that have been revised. This has led to a reduction of 30 basis points for the long term oilfield service growth. Now the 2014-2020 CAGR is at 4.5%.


SCube (Supplier Database): Reported revenue from oil service companies split on the same supplier segments and geographies as DCube

The latest SCube version (October 2014) includes 48 additional companies, which totals 370 of the largest listed and private service companies globally. Now you can split revenue also into quarters.



RigCube (Rig Demand & Supply Database): Global, offshore rig demand (rig count) and supply based on bottom-up, field-by-field activity analysis

As per our latest RigCube version (September 2014), the negative trend continues for the floating drilling market. 2014 demand is estimated to be at 260 units (264 in previous version) and 2020 demand is estimated at 406 units (426).



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The outlook for the floater market, before the substantial oil price drop, reflects a short-term oversupply due to a massive fleet increase combined with lowered demand growth rates. In September 2014 we saw market fundamentals suggesting a recovery for the floater market by late 2016, shown by the implied utilization increase post-2016 (Figure 1).
With the past month’s oil price fall to around 80 USD/bbl, a key question remains pivotal for the industry; how will this drop affect the market balance ahead, and what happens to the anticipated market recovery?

- The September demand and supply scenario with a Brent price of 105 USD/bbl – Late 2016 Recovery
The floater demand has seen an average annual growth rate of 9% from 2010-2013. However, due to existing market conditions with E&P companies delaying and cancelling projects, we expect a slowdown in the floater demand growth to 4% from 2013-2016. On the supply side we do not see the same slowdown as numerous floater newbuild deliveries are expected during the same period. The result is a period, where implied gross utilization decreases (Figure 1) and we see challenging market conditions for drillers with limited contract coverage. Reaching late 2016 however,  fundamentals point towards a market recovery with average annual demand growth rates again reaching 9% towards 2020. The rig demand growth recovery is supported by the necessity of offshore drilling to bring new volumes into an economy which still grows its oil consumption, and where offshore is still an important contributor.



Figure 1 shows the September demand and supply scenario for floating drilling units from 2005-2020.The shaded area indicates the expected demand based on the September forward curve. The black line indicates the expected supply given current newbuild visibility.


- The Sustained $80 Oil Price Scenario – Oversupply Could Lead to Attrition
If the oil price stabilizes at 80 USD/bbl, we anticipate halved short- and long-term average annual demand growth rates compared to the September scenario; 2% during 2013-2016, and 4% for 2016-2020 respectively. In the sustained $80 Oil Price Scenario, the short term effects will be related to an immediate drop /sustained low level of exploration drilling. Medium- to long- term we anticipate high breakeven projects (those with breakeven prices above 80 USD/bbl) to be delayed or cancelled, of which 50% of the floater demand at risk is located in deepwater areas of Brazil and West Africa. The effects of the above mentioned development in floater demand will create further downwards pressure on implied gross utilization: from an anticipated utilization of around 80-90% in our September view, to a utilization level of around 70-75% (Figure 2). Adding to this, and as a direct reaction to falling utilization levels, we could see increased fleet attrition. This would in turn help the recovery of the market and reduce the negative effects of the lower oil price on utilization levels. However, little doubt remains that a sustained $80 oil price will have significant negative effects on the markets, and that drillers will have to be even more patient in their wait for better days.




Figure 2 shows demand and supply for floating drilling units in the $80 Oil Price Scenario during 2005-2020.The solid shaded area indicates expected demand in an 80 USD/bbl scenario, while the patterned area indicates the demand at risk at breakeven oil price above the 80 USD/bbl threshold. The black line indicates the expected supply given current newbuild visibility.

Rystad Energy continuously monitors future drilling programs associated with exploration and development drilling. The perspectives presented above reflect our insight into the floater market and are available in RigCube.
 
 
Rystad Energy is an independent oil and gas consulting services and business intelligence data firm offering global databases, strategy advisory and research products for E&P and oil service companies, investors and governments. We are headquartered in Oslo, Norway, with additional research teams in India. Further presence has been established in the UK (London), USA (New York & Houston), Russia (Moscow), for Africa as well as South East Asia.