Pembina (Cardium Play) The longest oil producing field in Canada
RYSTAD ENERGY PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS Rystad Energy now offers a wide product range of North American shale products (NASAnalysis) as an advancement and extension to the previous North American Shale Quarterly report published until 2012.
NASReport: Up-to-date play coverage incorporating prospectivity maps, company-specific data, acreage and reserves, production forecasts of plays up to 2025 as well as infrastructure and economics of plays.
NASCube: Database that provides US and Canada shale gas and tight oil plays data for more than 200 companies and 30 plays. Data derives from Rystad Energy’s global and complete upstream database UCube, in addition to well data.
NASMaps: Geological, company acreage and well location maps. Maps are available as pdf-layers and GIS files with embedded information for import to GIS software.
NASWellData: Listing of official well data for key plays in addition to estimates for average well curves for selected acreages.
Cardium Play: the map to the left depicts the acreage position of the largest landholders; the map to the right represents Cardium acreage prospectivity, with ranking based on optimal combination of: thickness, depth and thermal maturity.
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The Cardium Play has been one of the largest oil fields in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin with production history of almost six decades. Starting in the mid ‘50s, the Cardium Play was originally developed with conventional drilling techniques; the production peaked in the early ‘70s at almost 200,000 boe/d and has been decreasing steadily ever since to around 50,000 boe/d in 2008. The main oil field in the Cardium Play is Pembina. Given the advancements in the horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, Rystad Energy estimates that Cardium Play will once again reach the production peak at almost 200,000 boe/d around 2019 as depicted in Figure 1 (Source: NASCube).
Given the maturity of the Cardium Play, the drilling plateau was reached at 2012 at around 600 wells according to the Rystad Energy analyses. As depicted in Figure 2, the wellbore count is forecasted to decline by ~5% in 2013 due to decreased activities by a number of companies (Lightstream Resources, Penn West Exploration, Bonterra Energy or Crew Energy). In 2013, Rystad Energy estimates Cardium to be the play with the highest drilling activities among Canadian unconventional plays: almost 30% of all horizontal fractured wells drilled in Canada will be in Cardium, over 2,100 wells in real terms (Source: NASCube).
The E&P companies with activities in Cardium are targeting the areas with the highest liquid content; given the vast area the play is covering, the different areas tend to be heterogeneous. The areas with highest liquid content are Lochend and East Pembina, the highest initial production is typically encountered in Lochend, Willesden Green and Ferrier areas. Given the high differences in the current oil and gas prices, the largest portion of the companies’ total NPV is originating from the oil production as depicted in Figure 3. (Source: NASCube). Lightstream Resources has the highest NPV (based on WTI forward prices and 10% discount rate), it also has the NPV/acreage above average (average value is estimated by Rystad Energy at $4.3 thousand per acre for companies targeting Cardium). The company owns one of the best acreage positions in the Cardium Play, all of which is located in the oil window of Cardium with depths ranging 4,000-6,000 meters in area that is 80-100 m thick (Source: NASMaps).
RYSTAD ENERGY INDUSTRY OUTLOOK The Petroleum Services Association of Canada (PSAC) anticipates a 7% increase in Alberta’s drilling activity over 2012 to 7,536 wells. The formations targeted are the Pembina Cardium, Bakken and Banff-Exshaw. Rystad Energy estimates that over 1,200 horizontal wells with hydraulic fracturing drilled in 2013 in the province of Alberta (Source: NASCube).
Rystad Energy is an independent oil and gas consulting services and business intelligence data firm offering global databases, strategy advisory and research products for E&P and oil service companies, investors and governments. We are headquartered in Oslo, Norway, with additional research teams in India. Further presence has been established in the UK (London), USA (New York & Houston), Russia (Moscow), for Africa as well as South East Asia.