ALBERTA BAKKEN FORECAST
 
RYSTAD ENERGY PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS
Rystad Energy now offers a wide product range of North American shale products (NASAnalysis) as an advancement and extension to the previous North American Shale Quarterly report published until 2012.

NASReport: Up-to-date play coverage incorporating prospectivity maps, company-specific data, acreage and reserves, production forecasts of plays up to 2025 as well as infrastructure and economics of plays.

NASCube: Database that provides US and Canada shale gas and tight oil plays data for more than 200 companies and 30 plays. Data derives from Rystad Energy’s global and complete upstream database UCube, in addition to well data.

NASMaps: Geological, company acreage and well location maps. Maps are available as pdf-layers and GIS files with embedded information for import to GIS software.

NASWellData: Listing of official well data for key plays in addition to estimates for average well curves for selected acreages.



CONTACT
NAS@rystadenergy.com

     

Alberta Bakken play: the map to the left depicts the acreage position of the largest landholders; the map to right represents Alberta Bakken acreage prospectivity, with ranking based on optimal combination of: thickness, depth and thermal maturity.

For additional and expandable industry charts, click here.

Alberta Bakken is an emerging play in southeastern Alberta. It is composed of Banff, Exhaw and Big Valley formations, in order from top to bottom. The Exhaw Shale of Alberta Bakken is a geologic equivalent of Bakken Shale which spreads within Montana and North Dakota, hence the name similarity. Exhaw Shale is currently at early stage of development which implies that the results reported by the industry range from “encouraging and pleasing” (e.g. DeeThree) to “disappointing” (e.g. Rosetta Resources). In any case, the name “Bakken” doesn’t guarantee the results of Bakken/Three Forks Shale of U.S. – the geologic differences of these two plays are significant (Source: NASReport).

The thermal maturity of the Bakken Shale ranges from Ro of 0.6 to 0.9, with the sweetspots in McKenzie and Dunn counties, where the thermal maturity of 0.9 boosts IP rates. The thermal maturity of Alberta Bakken ranges from 0.7 to 1, with sweetspots south of Lethbridge, where DeeThree reported encouraging results of its wells. The thickness of the plays is quite different: Alberta Bakken ranges from 15 to 50 feet in terms of thickness, whereas Three Forks Shale can be up to 250 feet thick, and Middle Bakken up to 75 feet thick – creating the sweetspots in the Montrail County with higher EURs than average Bakken. The depth of Alberta Bakken is up to 7,300 feet (6,000 feet on average) compared to up to 8,500 feet of Bakken Shale. To sum up, Bakken Shale of U.S. is of a higher prospectivity both in terms of IPs (driven by depth) and EURs (driven by thickness). Also, Middle Bakken Shale is composed of siltstones that have higher permeability than the black shale of Exhaw formation which has higher clay content (Source: NASMaps).

The value driver for Alberta Bakken is its high liquid content (GOR 20%), Rystad Energy estimates that in 2013 Alberta Bakken will be the 10th biggest Canadian shale and tight oil play in terms of wellbore count and 7th biggest in terms of total spending. The total 2012 production from Alberta Bakken is estimated to have reached above 4 kboe/d in 2012. In total, over 2 million net acres have been acquired in the play by the industry and Rystad Energy estimates above 0.4 billion boe of economically viable resources from this acreage. Rystad Energy valuates DeeThrees portfolio to have the highest NPV of ~$700 million. The company is reporting above average well results from its 200,000 net Alberta Bakken acres. Crescent Point Energy, although holding the largest acreage in the play (over 1 million acres) has NPV of only above $300 million estimated by Rystad Energy, due to the fact, that a large part of its acreage is located outside of the prospective Alberta Bakken fairway (Source: NASCube).


RYSTAD ENERGY INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

·         Industry is responding to the increased production trends in the Montney play by proposing new evacuation pipelines: TransCanada Corporation will build the North Montney Extension pipeline which is expected to be in-service during 2017. Rystad Energy estimates that the gas production from Montney will be increasing annually by 17% on average between 2012 and 2020 (Source: NASReport).

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Rystad Energy is an independent oil and gas consulting services and business intelligence data firm offering global databases, strategy advisory and research products for E&P and oil service companies, investors and governments. We are headquartered in Oslo, Norway, with additional research teams in India. Further presence has been established in the UK (London), USA (New York & Houston), Russia (Moscow), for Africa as well as South East Asia.