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RYSTAD ENERGY PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS
NASWellCube: Database with daily updates of official US & CA well data, covering over 320,000 wells and permits. It contains detailed analysis of well curves, pad drilling, re-frack trends and well economics to provide a complete well by well overview of the North American shale industry.
NASReport:Consists of monthly insights on industry trends, forecasts (short and medium term) for both production and spending. Detailed analysis of key North American shale plays and operators and a deep-dive into well data for drilling, completion and productivity trends. Delivered electronically on a monthly basis and a hard copy version every year for the full year edition.
NASCube: A subset of UCube. Database with monthly updates of the US and Canada shale gas and tight oil data for 400+ companies and 90+ shale plays and sub-plays with NPV estimations and long term forecasts at the asset level. Data derives from Rystad Energy’s global upstream database UCube, with additional information regarding acreage and well data.
NASMaps: Geological data, company acreage and well location maps for the main North American shale plays. Maps are available as pdf-layers and GIS files with embedded information for import to GIS software. Maps are also integrated in the NAS databases.
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North American shale development has been a clear winner during 2016 despite the low oil price during the year. Shale operators managed to increase efficiencies during the year, with wells producing larger volumes at lower costs. This has resulted in a very resilient shale oil production in the US, which is estimated to have reached its lowest point during Q3-2016 at 4.09 million bbl/d, after one and a half years of monthly drops. This production is expected to continue at a stabilized level until year-end 2016, as depicted in Figure 1. Marginal additions can be expected during the last month of the year, as activity continues to increase with a rise in the oil price since late November 2016. The inventory of drilled not yet producing wells can add more volumes if a significant amount of these wells are brought online before the year end.
The US shale oil production stabilized in Q3-2016 because the actual new wells brought to production were equal to the balancing wells, as shown in Figure 2. In July-October 2016, the balancing number of horizontal wells needed to keep a constant US shale oil production was ~450-480 wells per month, which was equivalent to the actual new wells brought online. Estimating the balancing wells requires a detailed understanding of base production declines and new volumes added per well. Rystad Energy closely monitors such metrics.
The balancing well count differs significantly from play to play, with Bakken having a lower balancing point than Eagle Ford. The latter has a similar balancing activity to the Permian Basin shale plays combined. In fact, the Permian Basin shale plays have been offsetting the production drop in the Bakken, Eagle Ford and other shale oil plays by keeping the actual activity above the balancing activity. This trend is expected to continue throughout the first quarter of 2017 with the increasing activity and transactions in the Permian Basin shale plays.
The Permian Basin shale plays have had a record year of transactions during 2016, with over 22 billion USD invested in mergers and acquisitions, more than in any other area of the world. This marks another win for shale this year, with record high investments on transactions amounting ~60 billion USD across the US and Canada. The transaction attractiveness of the Permian Basin is mainly due to the large stack potential of the area. Such stack potential consists of 12+ formations already proven to deliver competitive well results at low breakeven prices. A vast number of E&P companies are already exposed to such potential, as shown in Figure 3. Further transactions are expected as companies continue strengthening their Permian position by “cherry picking” areas from competitors that best match their current portfolios.