Article: NA Shale wins 2016 with improved drilling, completion and breakeven price
Article: Oilfield service companies exposed to shale are the winners of OPEC cuts; Offshore suppliers will struggle
RYSTAD ENERGY PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS
NASWellCube: Database with daily updates of official US & CA well data, covering over 420,000 wells and permits. It contains detailed analysis of well curves, pad drilling, re-frack trends and well economics to provide a complete well by well overview of the North American shale industry.
NASReport:Consists of monthly insights on industry trends, forecasts (short and medium term) for both production and spending. Detailed analysis of key North American shale plays and operators and a deep-dive into well data for drilling, completion and productivity trends. Delivered electronically on a monthly basis.
NASCube: A subset of UCube. Database with monthly updates of the US and Canada shale gas and tight oil data for 400+ companies and 90+ shale plays and sub-plays with NPV estimations and long term forecasts at the asset level. Data derives from Rystad Energy’s global upstream database UCube, with additional information regarding acreage and well data.
NASMaps: Geological data, company acreage and well location maps for the main North American shale plays. Maps are available as pdf-layers and GIS files with embedded information for import to GIS software. Maps are also integrated in the NAS databases.
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After two years of declining activity, North American investments dropped from 180 BUSD in 2014 to 60 BUSD in 2016. Now preliminary capex guidance is indicating 2017 to be the comeback year for shale. This year, investments are expected to grow around 40% with liquids production expected to grow by 300 kbbl/d.
Figure 1 shows the forecasted 2017 production growth by hydrocarbons for the top 10 shale plays. Marcellus will contribute to the highest growth rate in 2017. Due to low gas prices and a historically constrained takeaway capacity, there are over 2,000 drilled not yet producing Marcellus wells. As gas prices are expected to increase and new pipelines made available, Marcellus production is expected to increase by 200 kboe/d in 2017. In terms of oil production, the two Permian plays alone contribute 250 kbbl/d growth. The Permian plays are attractive due to the multi-stacked potential and experienced the most transactions in 2016. Following the Permian plays, Niobrara is the third largest contributor in increased oil production, and is expected to add 50 kbbl/d.
To realize this production growth, higher drilling activity and investments levels are needed. Figure 2 shows the change in investment levels for the main plays in 2017. On top, is Permian Delaware with 4.5 BUSD growth of investments or a 57% growth rate. Following closely is Eagle Ford, which also grows 60% when compared to 2016.
Figure 3 shows the top growing shale companies in 2017. The top six companies are all gas focused, with the top five active in the Appalachian basin.The highest growing company is Antero, with an anticipated growth of 60 kbbl/d. The oil companies that are growing the most are Permian focused. The growth from their Permian acreage puts RSP Permian, WPX and Pioneer on the Top 10 list.
In 2017, Rystad Energy expects both investment activity and production to increase from North American Shale. The gas companies and plays are positioned to contribute the most to the increased production, but the oil plays will experience the largest investment growth with the Permian and Eagle Ford plays as the front-runners.