| We are delighted to bring you the APAC Regional Newsletter - our monthly bulletin to keep you informed with Rystad Energy in the region. |
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|  | A note from our Vice President & Country Manager China, Xinlei Zhu As the world gears up for the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow, energy transition is becoming an increasingly hot topic among energy corporations and policy makers. At the same time, international energy markets are also at the center of attention, as prices for fossil fuel energies such as oil, gas, LNG and coal have soared of late, with some reaching record heights. This is an unprecedented dynamic for the energy industry, which is facing ever-changing challenges and opportunities. Rystad Energy collects vast amounts of industry data at micro level and uses it to create a macro view of the global energy system, enabling detailed forecasts to be made via our EnergyScenarioCube under a range of scenarios, in accordance with the IPCC’s carbon budget amid rising temperatures. During the process of completing this global model, it became apparent that China will play a pivotal role in the context of future energy systems. China is presently at the core of the global energy industry, given its status as both the largest energy consumer and the largest energy producer, measured in joules, covering fossil fuels and renewable energy sources. In the renewable energy segment, China has taken a leading role as the largest investor in renewable energy development, controlling the supply chain, owning the largest installed capacity and generating more kilowatt hours than any other nation. At the same time, China is now the world's largest GHG emitter, responsible for around a quarter of all global emissions. China’s energy production and demand to a large extent drive international energy markets, and the country’s commitment of peaking its carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 will be a critical factor in the drive to achieve global carbon neutrality by mid-century. In recognition of the central role that China plays in the global energy industry, Rystad Energy has established two offices in China – in Beijing and Shanghai – and built a strong local research team. Our China research spectrum covers everything from upstream E&P and supply chains to energy markets such as oil, gas and LNG, while also covering the value chains of the renewable energy industry that represent a key part of the energy transition, such energy metals, batteries and hydrogen, among others. Our China research team is continually on the front line assembling first-hand market information and industry insights, and incorporating this data into Rystad Energy’s proprietary databases and reports. Our China sales, tech support and marketing teams ensure that we are connected to the local market, and we will always strive to be an active member of China’s energy industry and research society. |
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| | | Upstream
NOCs outlook: Petronas shows resilience through volatile oil and gas market
Eugene Chiam, Vice President, Upstream Research The spotlight in our series of commentaries on national oil companies (NOC) this week falls on Petronas. As with peers, the Malaysian state giant was adversely affected by the significant industry headwinds caused by the Covid-19 pandemic that took hold from early 2020, causing projects to be delayed and disrupting supply chains. As one of the major players in Malaysia’s energy sector, Petronas has faced unprecedented challenges in balancing reduced capital investments with the need to bolster domestic projects and jobs. In this commentary, we take a closer look at Petronas’ recent upstream activities across exploration, project sanctioning and new startups, also assessing how the company is embracing the energy transition while navigating a volatile market. |
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| Energy Service In need of more oil, China is set to splurge over $120 billion on services and drill 118,000 wells through 2025 Peng Li, Analyst, Energy Service China is looking to pump up oil and gas production in the years ahead to meet climbing domestic demand and reduce the record-high share of imports in its oil consumption. A Rystad Energy report projects a surge in spending till 2025, which will be accompanied by a drilling spree totaling 118,000 wells that will create significant opportunities for suppliers. China’s national oil companies (NOCs) are expected to splurge more than $120 billion on drilling and well services in the five-year period of 2021-2025, seeking to meet the rising oil and gas demand. At the same time, the country aims to supply more of its oil demand from domestic sources, after the share of imported crude oil has risen steadily from 2014 to a high of almost 75% last year. |
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| Markets Despite Indonesia’s ambitious power sector plans, coal still included Justin Jose, Analyst, Gas and Power Markets Research Indonesia’s plans to shift its power sector away from coal and towards renewables by the end of the decade may be too ambitious, a Rystad Energy analysis suggests, as a strong increase in coal demand from the sector is expected – at least in the short-to-medium term. By the late 2020s, renewables will impact the power mix in a more significant way, but coal generation is unlikely to peak before 2032. We expect overall thermal coal demand to be much lower than previous estimates – which had domestic consumption rising all the way to 2040 – because exports are in line to take a hit as import demand is projected to wane in prime markets such as India and China. Indonesia’s coal industry, therefore, faces long-term hurdles amid dwindling international demand and lower-than-expected domestic demand growth. |
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| Renewables China Three Gorges enters MENA’s lucrative renewables market with Alcazar deal Gaurav Metkar, Senior Analyst, Renewables Research A consortium of Chinese investors, led by China Three Gorges Corporation (CTG), has fully acquired Dubai-based independent renewable project developer Alcazar Energy Partners (AEP). With a total operational capacity of 411 megawatts (MW), the acquisition will enable CTG to gain a strategic, cash-generating foothold in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) where demand and policy support for renewable energy developments is booming. Financial details of the deal were not disclosed but the acquisition price is believed to be around $1 billion including debt of $500 million. Assuming a 5% standard discount rate, Rystad Energy estimates AEP’s net present value (NPV) to be around $642 million based on the youthful age of the company’s assets. In addition, AEP’s long-term project power purchase agreements (PPAs) mean the deal will deliver stable cash flow for CTG for at least 20 years. |
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| | Japan Monthly Insights マンスリーインサイト : ライスタッド・エナジー が誇るグローバルエキスパートの最新エネルギー市場分析をコンパクトなサマリーとして毎週お届けします。ガス＆LNG市場、原油市場、再エネ、シェールオイル、メタルマーケットなどの多岐に渡る分野を網羅します。 |
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| | News & Events Meet our experts and hear from them on the current topics that are shaping the energy landscape. Visit our website for our full calendar of News & Events. |
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| | Rystad Energy Events Rystad Energy Week 2021 - On Demand
November 1 Register for on-demand sessions: Recordings is available on our event platform until November 1 |
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| | External Events Industry Webinar | 2021 Australia-Korea New Energy Forum
Oct 5 | Virtual |
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| Connecting Green Hydrogen Japan 2021
October 12 - 13 | Yokohama |
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| Industry Webinar | Malaysian Clean Power & New Energy 2021: Precipitate ASEAN’s Energy Transformation to Clean Power & New Energy
October 12-13 | Kuala Lumpur & Virtual |
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| Asia Clean Energy Summit 2021 | Driving Asia's Clean Energy Transition Amidst COVID Recovery
October 26 - 28 | Singapore & Virtual |
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| | | | | | | | Industry Webinar | Superannuation Investment Conference 2021: 2B - What's the alternative? September 1 | Virtual Gero Farruggio, Head of Australia & Global Renewables, provided his valuable insights on 2B - What's the alternative? during the virtual conference. For more details, please contact gero.farruggio@rystadenergy.com. |
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| | FPSO World Congress 2021 - Hybrid Edition
September 6 | Singapore & Virtual Vijay Krishnan, Partner & Head of Asia Pacific delivered his Opening Remarks as Congress Chairperson. Jo Friedmann, Vice President, Energy Service Research participated as one of the panelists providing valuable insights on Leveraging Ultra-Deepwater Fields to Tap into New FPSO Project Opportunities.
For more details, please contact marketing@rystadenergy.com.
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| | RIU Good Oil Conference 2021
September 8 | Perth Jimmy Zeng, Senior Analyst & Product Manager, Australasia Upstream Research presented his perspectives on Industry Consolidation topic for Australis market at RIU Good Oil conference 2021. We also had a booth at the conference.
For more details, please contact marketing@rystadenergy.com.
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| | Industry Webinar | ASEAN Energy Business Forum
September 14 | Virtual Jarand Rystad, Founding Partner & CEO and Vijay Krishnan, Partner & Head of Asia Pacific shared valuable insights during Keynote session: Southeast Asia Energy Transition Outlook in a Global Context as well as during BIG Ideas Panel: ASEAN Utilities and Age of Transformation session.
For more details, please contact marketing@rystadenergy.com.
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| | Rystad Energy Week 2021
September 21 - 23 | Virtual 53 Rystad experts and 25 esteemed guest speakers brought 90 sessions of insightful presentations and discussions addressing current energy challenges and market dynamics in an evolving energy landscape across the globe during Rystad Energy Week, our Virtual Annual Summit held from September 21 – 23. For more details, please contact marketing@rystadenergy.com. |
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