| We are delighted to bring you the APAC Regional Newsletter - our monthly bulletin to keep you informed with Rystad Energy in the region. |
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|  | A note from our Senior Editor, Analysis, Sally Bogle As we progress through 2022’s third quarter, the APAC region continues to navigate the fallout from the pandemic as well as a host of geopolitical and energy transition-related challenges and opportunities. We empathize with China, our region’s dominant economy, as it strives to minimize continued outbreaks of the virus in some of its major cities and manufacturing hubs. This is having short-term consequences across the global energy spectrum, with ongoing supply chain constraints impacting all aspects of the energy sector from battery materials and solar PV wafer fabrication to oil refining and LNG trading. As a consequence of the pandemic, sectors such as offshore oil and gas are also wrestling with soaring inflation. Though far from APAC’s shores, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is inevitably having a widespread impact on our region, especially already volatile commodity markets, highlighting the fact that geopolitical factors as much as technological developments now definitively influence prices and policies in every corner of the globe. On the plus side, major opportunities are emerging in APAC, including Taiwan’s offshore wind sector and Australia’s carbon capture and storage (CCS) market, promising a major influx of investment. At the same time, India’s private refiners are boosting clean product exports, with Southeast Asia seeing improved margins from oil and gas production. Longer term, the imperative to cut greenhouse gas emissions while proactively managing the physical and transitional risks associated with climate change continues to dominate corporate agendas. Determining how, when and where to transform traditional energy businesses to ensure they are resilient in the face of climate-related risks is a standout objective, especially since financial market and investors are increasingly making environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors a primary consideration in their lending criteria. At Rystad Energy, we welcome the opportunity to help you chart a successful path through these uncertainties. By leveraging our extensive granular data and dashboards, backed by our expert analysts in the region and around the globe, we welcome your enquiries and look forward to providing you with analysis and forecasts to help you and your business make better decisions. With this in mind, we are continually adding new products and offerings for our clients, the latest of which is LNG Trade Solution, an analytical tool combining our deep research capabilities with AIS maritime intelligence data to support clients in trading and decision-making. |
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| | | Upstream
Will Esso Australia’s new development plans for Kipper, Turrum shift market views?
Jimmy Zeng, Senior Analyst, Upstream Research On 17 March 2022, Esso Australia (ExxonMobil) announced a A$400 million (US$295 million) final investment decision (FID) to develop additional gas from the Gippsland Basin’s producing Kipper field and to advance funding to optimize production at the Turrum field. The investment is expected to add 30 petajoules (PJ) of gas to eastern Australia’s gas market in 2023, with potential for a cumulative 200 PJ of additional gas between 2023 and 2027, which we believe would require Turrum’s optimization to proceed. In this commentary, Rystad Energy provides a preliminary analysis of what this announcement may mean for Victoria’s gas supply and the broader market trends that we have been monitoring since the start of 2022. If an additional 200 PJ is realized, it will undermine the need for liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facilities to offset an anticipated shortfall in gas supply into the region. |
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| Energy Service Shipyards: Pandemic backlog and decarbonization drive lift South Korean market share Binny Bagga, Senior Analyst, Energy Service Research South Korean shipyards are set to grow market share this year as they take advantage of a dip in production by their Chinese counterparts as tight Covid-related lockdowns and rising labor and raw material costs constrain China’s ability to maintain production targets. South Korea’s leading shipbuilders are also moving swiftly to advance their capabilities for fabricating vessels using low carbon fuels as regulations from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) accelerate the shift to a cleaner and greener shipping sector. In this commentary, we take a look at the changing market share of major Asian shipyards in China, South Korea and Singapore in recent years and assess the outlook for liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessel orders and offshore fabrication demand through 2025. In general, we see an improved outlook for the Korean shipbuilding industry as decarbonization efforts gather pace, spurring demand for offshore vessels to install wind turbines and new bulk carriers fueled by LNG, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), ammonia and hydrogen. |
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| Markets China’s gas demand faces headwinds as strict lockdowns bite Wei Xiong, Senior Analyst, Gas Markets Research China’s natural gas demand experienced double-digit growth last year as the economy bounced back from the first year of the pandemic. The world’s second-largest economy also saw record-high liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in 2021, surpassing Japan to become the world’s largest LNG importer. In the first quarter of 2022, however, China’s gas demand has seen a notable slowdown as strict Covid-19 controls in the large parts of the country have stunted industrial manufacturing and restricted movement. China’s LNG imports have also reversed last year’s growth and are trending lower due to slowing demand and soaring global LNG spot prices on increased European demand following the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In this commentary, we discuss China’s approach to LNG imports and short-term gas import and demand outlook. In general, we see Chinese importers preferencing piped gas and contracted LNG imports over spot LNG supply due to the lower costs, though this pattern may change as China nears year-end when storage injection and winter demand may drive an uptick in spot LNG buying. |
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| Renewables Vietnam set for wind ramp-up as approval nears for new power development plan Jun Yee Chew, Senior Analyst, Renewable Energy Research Vietnam’s long-anticipated Power Development Plan VIII (PDP 8) has been submitted to Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s office for approval with a total installed renewables capacity target for 2030 of 39.6 gigawatts (GW) comprised of wind and solar, excluding 28.9 GW of hydropower. Wind energy’s new target of 16.1 GW – including both onshore and nearshore – and 7 GW from offshore represents a big jump from the previous Power Development Plan VII (PDP 7) as the success of the generous feed-in-tariff (FIT) helped Vietnam far exceed these targets. The Vietnamese government does not, however, wish to increase any solar PV capacity until after 2030, flatlining at 8.7 GWAC for utility-scale solar PV and 7.8 GWAC for rooftop solar. Rystad Energy believes Vietnam could meet these targets with the help of the private sector but is highly dependent on the outcome of the yet-to-be-announced renewables auction and direct power purchase agreement (PPA) mechanisms.. |
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| | Japan Monthly Insights マンスリーインサイト : ライスタッド・エナジー が誇るグローバルエキスパートの最新エネルギー市場分析をコンパクトなサマリーとして毎週お届けします。ガス＆LNG市場、原油市場、再エネ、シェールオイル、メタルマーケットなどの多岐に渡る分野を網羅します。 |
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| | News & Events Meet our experts and hear from them on the current topics that are shaping the energy landscape. Visit our website for our full calendar of News & Events. |
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| | Rystad Energy Webinar APAC Regional Webinar | What is the potential of the CCUS market in APAC?
May 12, 1:30 pm - 2:00 pm SGT | Virtual |
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| | External Events LNG to Power APAC
May 12 | Singapore |
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| APPEA 2022 Conference and Exhibition
May 16 - 19 | Brisbane |
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| 28th World Gas Conference
May 23 - 27 | Daegu |
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| | | | | | | | Rystad Energy APAC Breakfast Briefing April 19 | Singapore Jarand Rystad, Founding Partner & CEO presented his views on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the energy markets and the long-term plans for the Energy Transition in Asia. For more details, please contact marketing@rystadenergy.com. |
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| | 2nd Marine & Offshore Congress 2022 April 26 | Virtual Lin Lin Goh, Senior Analyst, Energy Service Research, shared her perspectives on Opportunities and challenges for offshore players during the 2nd Marine & Offshore Congress 2022. For more details, please contact lin.lin.goh@rystadenergy.com. |
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| | Rystad Talks Energy | April 2022: Energy Transition – where we are, what we see coming, and what are the opportunities? April 28 | Virtual Joined by industry experts from PETRONAS, Charlotte Wolff-Bye, Vice President, Chief Sustainability Officer and Pertamina (Persero), Dr Oki Muraza, Senior Vice President, Research and Technology Innovation, Jarand Rystad, Founding Partner & CEO, Per Magnus Nysveen, Head of Analysis, and Xi Nan, Vice President, Gas and Power Markets Research, provided their insights on the Where we are, what we see coming, and what are the opportunities during the latest Rystad Talks Energy session. For more details, please contact marketing@rystadenergy.com. |
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