| We are delighted to bring you the APAC Regional Newsletter - our monthly bulletin to keep you informed with Rystad Energy in the region. |
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|  | A note from our Partner & Head of Research, India, Parul Chopra As the global economy started to recover from the covid shock in 2022, new challenges have emerged on the horizon. Supply shocks due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and overheated economy due to stimulus checks are now resulting in increased inflation, partly driven by higher oil prices. Central banks are rising to this challenge and trying to control the inflation by rising interest rates triggering concerns of recession in the US and slowdown in other economies across the globe.
The effect is also pronounced within the APAC region where higher prices will reduce demand and GDP growth will slow down in countries like India, China, and other developing economies. For the energy sector, two key factors will be critical for business decisions over the next few quarters. A respite from higher oil and gas prices is needed due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Additional oil supply coming from Saudi Arabia, Iran and mitigation of supply disruptions will soothe the markets but more importantly, an end to the conflict in Russia and Ukraine will go a long way in getting the oil and gas prices under check. While inflation might not have a pronounced impact on the oil and gas sector spending and might accelerate due to higher free cash flows over the past six months, it will be detrimental to the renewables sector where the LCOE costs will increase for solar, wind, and rising EV costs will slow down the pace of transition. A prolonged period of high oil and gas prices will also result in higher energy import bills for countries in the region and force countries to slow down on their energy transition agenda.
At Rystad Energy, we will continue to track closely these macro factors and provide our detailed insights on how we see the market evolving over the next several months. This continuous uncertainty also means that clients often want to use their own assumptions to test the market outlook and our easy-to-use tools including the dynamic dashboards and economic models provide the flexibility to conduct analysis independently. In particular, our cost benchmarking, estimating, and service price inflation offerings are able to forecast the impact of inflation on your underlying business and plan your decisions accordingly. Please reach out to us to learn more about these offerings and help you in making more informed decisions. |
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| | | Upstream
Shell likely to target Malaysia CCS potential in gas push at new blocks
Prateek Pandey, Vice President, Upstream Research Shell is likely to target the potential for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects in Malaysia after the Anglo-Dutch major picked up stakes in four of six offshore exploration blocks recently awarded by the Southeast Asian nation. Malaysia Bid Round 2021 was marked by a high level of interest from international players, with the likes of Thai state player PTTEP and South Korea’s SK earthon also picking up acreage. Of the six tracts awarded, three are in each of Sarawak and Sabah states in East Malaysia. Shell landed operatorship of its four tracts – SK439, SK440 in Sarawak and Block 2W and Block X in Sabah – and looks set to focus on gas opportunities. In this commentary, Rystad Energy examines Shell’s potential long-term strategy with its new exploration acreage from offshore Sarawak in Malaysia. |
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| Energy Service Southeast Asian nations, operators catching up in energy transition race Lin Lin Goh, Senior Analyst, Energy Service Research Southeast Asian nations have historically been more sluggish than their European and East Asian counterparts when it comes to energy transition efforts, including growing renewable and low-carbon energy sources and setting net zero targets. This is unsurprising given that most Southeast Asian nations have abundant oil and gas resources and have historically been heavily reliant on fossil fuels for their primary energy needs. Low oil prices during the pre-pandemic years also provided few incentives for governments to set green energy policies. However, supply and demand issues over the past two years have changed this, with countries, operators and oilfield service providers in Southeast Asia now galvanized to focus on climate-related and energy transition initiatives. In this commentary, we examine the efforts specific Southeast Asian countries are taking to set emission reduction targets and to grow renewables and carbon capture and storage (CCS) investments. |
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| Markets What does China’s new five-year plan mean for its gas sector? Wei Xiong, Senior Analyst, Gas and LNG Markets Research The Chinese government published the 14th five-year plan (FYP) for the energy sector covering 2021-2025 highlighting energy security in the aftermath of the power crunch and soaring commodity prices the country experienced last year. Specifically for the gas sector, the latest plan will mainly aim to improve gas storage and supply capabilities, without any clear targets on boosting gas consumptions or raising the share of gas in China’s primary energy mix, which were major tasks under the 13th FYP. The previous 2016-2020 FYP saw high-speed gas market growth in China driven by coal-to-gas switching and significant gas infrastructure construction work. Rystad Energy has now reviewed the implications and performance of China’s gas sector in the 13th FYP, and will dive into the key targets of the 14th FYP as well as any major differences. We forecast China’s gas demand will see slower growth of 6.3% on average per year in the 2021-2025 period, mostly expected to come from the residential and heating sectors – a priority in the context of energy security.
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| Renewables Aussie wind sector rebounds from Covid lows as Acciona clears Macintyre project David Dixon, Senior Analyst, Renewable Energy Research News this week that Spanish renewable developer Acciona has begun building the 1,026-megawatt (MW) Macintyre onshore wind farm in Queensland is a sure sign the sector is rebounding from the lows seen during the first two years of the pandemic. Macintyre is Australia’s largest onshore wind project beyond financial close and will be the first to exceed 1 gigawatt (GW) in capacity. The project lifts the amount of wind capacity in Australia that has started construction this year to over 2 GW, a significant bounce-back from 2020 and 2021 when less than 1.2 GW of wind capacity began construction. It means Queensland is fast emerging as Australia’s predominant hub for utility PV and wind developments, a title held by New South Wales for the previous three years, with 2017 the last time Queensland was the dominant state for new renewables build. However, Queensland still trails Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia in terms of wind capacity at or beyond financial close in Australia. This is unlikely to last given Queensland has a strong pipeline of wind projects in the offing, with 13.4 GW or 31 assets awaiting financial close, and is targeting 50% of renewable energy by 2030. Alongside its high penetration of solar PV, we expect Queensland to see several more wind projects sign power purchase agreements (PPAs) in the coming years. |
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| | Japan Monthly Insights マンスリーインサイト : ライスタッド・エナジー が誇るグローバルエキスパートの最新エネルギー市場分析をコンパクトなサマリーとして毎週お届けします。ガス＆LNG市場、原油市場、再エネ、シェールオイル、メタルマーケットなどの多岐に渡る分野を網羅します。 |
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| | News & Events Meet our experts and hear from them on the current topics that are shaping the energy landscape. Visit our website for our full calendar of News & Events. |
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| | Rystad Energy Events Rystad Talks Industry | July 2022 - Solar PV: The cost of sunshine
July 7 | Virtual |
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| Rystad Talks Energy | July 2022: Powering the Energy Transition – China’s roles in future global energy scenarios
July 28 | Virtual |
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| | External Events 5th Vietnam Onshore and Offshore Wind Summit
July 7 - 8 | Ho Chi Minh City |
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| Australian Clean Energy Summit 2022
July 19 - 20 | Sydney |
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| 3rd IndoPACIFIC LNG Summit
July 19 - 20 | Bali |
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| 2nd Annual Clean Power & New Energy Conference 2022
July 20 - 21 | Kuala Lumpur |
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| Future Energy Asia 2022
July 20 - 22 | Bangkok |
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| Australian Clean Energy Summit 2022
July 20 | Sydney |
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| Connecting Green Hydrogen APAC 2022
July 25 - 26 | Melbourne |
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| | | | | | 2022 Norway – China Battery Investment Webinar May 31 | Virtual Edison Luo, Senior Analyst for Battery Materials Research, gave his insights on the Outlook of European capacity ramp-up in the battery supply chain at the 2022 Norway – China Battery Investment Webinar. For more details, please contact edison.luo@rystadenergy.com. |
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| | Asia Pacific Energy Capital Assembly 2022 June 7 | Singapore Jarand Rystad, Founding Partner & CEO, shared his insights during the Opening Industry Keynote on Energy Transition, Getting the Energy Transition Right in Asia.
For more details, please contact marketing@rystadenergy.com. |
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| | Tasmanian Energy Development Conference June 22 - 23 | Devonport David Dixon, Senior Analyst, Australia Renewables Research shared his perspectives on NEM Outlook – Predictions, Funding & Delivery during the Tasmanian Energy Development Conference.
For more details, please contact david.dixon@rystadenergy.com. |
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| | Sarawak OGSE Roadshow June 23 - 24 | Sarawak Eugene Chiam, Vice President, Upstream Research, Asia Pacific, shared his insights on How Foreign Investors View the Investment Opportunities in Malaysia at Sarawak OGSE Roadshow.
For more details, please contact eugene.chiam@rystadenergy.com. |
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