Global Renewables: Movers & Shakers

The Philippines successfully closes first green energy auction program

The Philippines’ Department of Energy (DOE) successfully closed the first green energy auction program (GEAP) by awarding 1,967 megawatts (MW) of capacity out of the 2,000 MW on offer (see figure 1). Most of the capacity awarded was solar PV, which accounted for 76% of the total, with local developer Solar Philippines sweeping nearly all of it. More than 80% of the winning projects were fully owned by local developers, with foreign investors only landing stakes in onshore wind projects through joint ventures with local players. The DOE will, nevertheless, need to accelerate GEAP awarded capacity development to hit the 50% renewables target set under the country’s energy plan for 2020-2040. To achieve the target – which translates into 81.5 gigawatts (GW) by 2040, the DOE will have to award twice as much capacity via the program in the coming years. 

About 95% of the awarded capacity came from solar PV and wind, with the DOE targeting additions of 1,260 MW of solar PV and 380 MW of wind. The solar potential in the Philippines is reflected in the large awarded capacity of 1,490 MW- worth of projects which is a 62% boost in new additions compared to the awarded 500 MW in the country’s solar feed-in tariff (FIT) round in 2014. 

Repowering made in Germany: On the road to 2035 onshore wind targets

Germany leads Europe’s total installed onshore wind capacity but is nearing a crossroads as a significant chunk of its capacity is set to retire by the end of the decade. Between 2022 and 2030, a total of 20 gigawatts (GW) of installed onshore wind capacity is going to surpass its 20-year lifetime span. Operators have a critical decision to make, whether to replace the turbines with newer and more efficient units – also known as repowering – or take the necessary measures to extend the lifetime of the existing turbines. Failing to act is not an option as the older fleet will require increasingly higher operational expenditures (opex) and at some point, keeping these turbines online will no longer make economic sense.

Wind energy development in Germany started over two decades ago when the country introduced its Renewable Energy Act. The nascent onshore wind industry at the time was given a rapid boost and amid favorable public opinions, the country was soon leading installations (see Figure 1). But turbine technology and capacities have since matured, with significantly larger sizes available on the market.

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Biden breathes life into US solar industry by waiving tariffs for 24 months

US President Joe Biden announced this week that his administration will waive new tariffs on solar panel imports for 24 months, as well as invoke the Defense Production Act to spur solar panel manufacturing in the country. The news brings relief to an industry that has been brought to a near halt due to uncertainty over import restrictions. The administration hopes the policy initiatives will ease delays among the US solar sector by bringing new panel manufacturing capacity online. In addition, President Biden hopes the initiatives will invigorate investment in domestic solar panel manufacturing, curbing reliance on imports and supporting US jobs. This major step will provide a breather for the US solar industry – and boost confidence levels among industry players. However, an impact is still pending, and Rystad Energy’s preliminary outlook suggests solar PV installed capacity this year will end up closer to 2020 levels.

According to the announcement on Monday, no new tariffs will be imposed on solar imports for the next two years, providing a safe-harbor for importers from collection of duties. It follows the launch in early May of a US antidumping and countervailing (ADCV) investigation into US panel imports on fears that Chinese panel manufacturers are offshoring cell and panel assembly processes to southeast Asia in contravention of US import restrictions on Chinese producers. While the latest decision to pause the tariffs does not mark the end of the ADCV probe, the administration has noted that if tariffs are eventually imposed, they will not be retrospectively applied.

At the start of the year, Rystad Energy expected 6 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity to be at-risk due to commodity price inflation and supply chain constraints related to Covid-19. After the ADCV investigation kicked off, we revised our 2022 outlook to up to 17.5 GW of at-risk capacity. While the halt on panel imports will instill confidence for an industry aching to get back to work, we continue to expect an impact that cannot be overlooked – bringing our preliminary outlook on installed capacity closer to 2020 levels (see figure 1).

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