A bright future for Renewables in APAC
 

June 2019

A bright future for Renewables in APAC

ASIA OIL & GAS CONFERENCE 2019 

Our CEO, Jarand Rystad, is speaking on the first day of the conference in the session about "Creating disruption, managing risks".

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RYSTAD ENERGY PRESS RELEASES 

Article: Renewables set to outspend E&P in APAC 

Article: Petronas breaks E&P mold with entrance into Indian solar market


 RYSTAD ENERGY PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS

RenewableCube: Up to date, detailed, and comprehensive database of solar, wind and storage assets in Australia, India and SE Asia

•  Renewable product updatesIn May 2019, 15 Australian assets operated by 9 companies were added to the RenewableCube, accounting for 3.5 GW of capacity. Of the 15 new projects, 8 are solar, 3 are storage and 4 are wind. Data for a further 55 projects, covering 18.6 GW, was updated. 


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Renewables set to outspend E&P in APAC

Renewables energy investment in Asia excluding China will overtake spending on upstream oil and gas projects in the region as early as next year. Total capital expenditure (capex) in renewables will overtake exploration and production (E&P) spending in 2020, with contributions from Australia and other Asian countries such as Vietnam, Taiwan and South Korea. In Australia, the renewable energy project pipeline is approximately double the currently operating assets in the national electricity market. The growth in India’s renewables presents significant scale and is one to watch, while Vietnam has been experiencing a boom in utility PV thanks to favorable feed-in tariffs. The dark horse is Indonesia. By 2025, electricity demand is expected to triple from 2017 levels, yet the country is yet to develop utility PV or wind on the scale seen by neighboring Australia and Vietnam.

Figure 1: A graph showing the total project capex in APAC (excluding China) in CAPEX (Million USD) from 2014 to 2026. Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube, Cube

Utility Scale Vanadium Batteries enter RenewableCube

The Pangea Storage Project consisting of a 50 MW solar farm and 100 MW/200 MWh Vanadium Redox Battery in Port Augusta is the first Vanadium Battery to enter Rystad Energy's RenewableCube. Whilst Rystad's RenewableCube tracks many forms of storage, it is clear pumped hydro and lithium batteries are the storage technologies of choice at present. In 2019 alone, 3.3 GWAC of lithium batteries and 2.8 GWAC entered the RenewableCube.

Figure 2: A bar chart showing Australia utility storage project pipeline in MWac. Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube

Relief in Queensland as controversial new rule reversed within weeks

As of 13 May 2019, mounting, locating, fixing and removal of solar panels at solar farms can only be undertaken by licensed electricians in Queensland. These rules apply to all solar farms with a rated capacity over 100 kW, hence also impacting the commercial and industrial (C&I) space. The new rules were anticipated to create a slowdown for sanctioning of utility PV farms as developers re-evaluated the economics of their projects. Yet the rule was repealed by the supreme court on Wednesday (29/05), following efforts from several industry players and the Clean Energy Council. This is good news for Queensland, which risked stalling a large utility pipeline which currently has over 15GW of utility PV awaiting development.

Figure 3: A bar chart showing Queensland Renewables Generation in TWH. Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube

Epuron enters Tasmanian wind sector

The addition of the Western Plains, St Patrick's Plains, Hellyer and Guildford to Rystad’s RenewableCube have pushed Epuron Australia to become Tasmania's second largest wind developer, trailing behind UPC Renewables Australia Pty Ltd by only a few MWs. These are Epuron's first wind projects in Tasmania.

Figure 4: A bar chart showing the top Tasmania wind developers in MWac. Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube

Vietnam sees first projects with trackers commissioned

As Vietnam continues to commission PV projects, the country also sees some projects with solar tracking being commissioned despite land restrictions. These are part of the Trung Nam project with 49 MWAC on trackers and the 15 MWAC Mo Duc project. However, tracking systems usage still only accounts for a very minor share of the current project pipeline in the country.

Figure 5: A bar chart showing the usage of tracking systems in SEA vs. Australia from 2014-19 in MWac from 2014 to 2019. Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube

India’s heavy-handed push for home-grown equipment may curtail solar growth

The Indian government has introduced solar import duties in a desperate play to encourage local manufacturing and curtail a deluge of imports from China and other Southeast Asian manufacturers. The main hiccup is that the safeguard duty is set to be in place for only two to four years – far below the solar manufacturing industry payback period, which requires high upfront capex. Given the short duration of the safeguard duty, Indian companies are reluctant to establish new manufacturing facilities or expand existing ones.

Figure 6: A graph showing the capacity of installed capacity changes and capacity of panels imported in MWdc from 2016 to 2022