Rystad Energy - Energy Knowledge House
Rystad Energy - Energy Knowledge House

press release

LNG prices have nosedived. What are the implications for the main exporting countries?

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A mild winter and growing surplus of supply have knocked the legs out from under Asian LNG, with spot prices plummeting more than 60% since last September. Similarly, British front month prices (NBP) have dropped from $9.90 per MMBtu in September 2018 to $4.40 per MMBtu during the first week of April.

Current low prices at importing markets offer producers in the main exporting countries – Australia, Qatar and the US – meagre netbacks of below $4 per MMBtu. This basement price no longer allows all exporters to cover their operational costs, which could have serious implications; exporters could adjust down production to avoid operating at a loss if low prices persist.

201900419 LNG export_Friday snapshot.jpg

Some Australian spot cargoes are already in the red as netbacks are more than $1 per MMBtu below opex. However, given that the US and Qatar have lower feed gas costs, exporters from these countries are still achieving a profit when selling volumes in the spot market. Even if European prices were to fall to $3.90 per MMBtu, representing a drop of about $0.50, US exporters would still break even, assuming Henry Hub prices remain at $2.70 per MMBtu. And in Qatar, Asian spot prices could fall another $1.90 per MMbtu before falling below the breakeven price.

For a more detailed analysis please have a look at our Gas Market Analytics.



Carlos Torres Diaz
Head of Gas Market Research
Phone: +47 24 00 42 00

Carsten Torbergsen
Marketing Manager
Phone: +47 24 00 42 00

About Rystad Energy

Rystad Energy is an independent energy research and business intelligence company providing data, tools, analytics and consultancy services to the global energy industry. Our products and services cover energy fundamentals and the global and regional upstream, oilfield services and renewable energy industries, tailored to analysts, managers and executives alike. Rystad Energy’s headquarters are located in Oslo, Norway. Further presence has been established in London, New York, Houston, Stavanger, Moscow, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Bangalore, Tokyo, Sydney and Dubai.