March 28, 2019
Rystad Energy’s Oil Markets team has updated their Forties Blend forecast:
** For July, we forecast Forties Blend production of 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) for July 2019 as Buzzard drops to 94,000 bpd due to field maintenance
** For August, we expect Forties Blend production to drop further to 280,000 bpd while Buzzard output recovers to 115,000 bpd as other Forties feeding fields go into maintenance
** We expect the average sulfur content of Forties Blend to decrease to 0.69 %wt for July 2019 from 0.77 %wt for June 2019, before increasing to 0.83 %wt for August 2019
“We expected a minor maintenance campaign at Buzzard for July 2019, ahead of peak maintenance impact for Forties Blend feeding fields excluding Buzzard in the first half of August 2019,” says Milan Rudel, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy.
“However, we continue to forecast relatively little maintenance impact at Buzzard for 2019 as we expect a major shut-in for 2020 due to the FPS closure and Buzzard Phase 2 tie-in,” Rudel added.
The Buzzard field off the coast of Scotland is the second largest North Sea oil field in terms of current production after Troll. Buzzard is said to have outsized importance in setting the oil price, as it contributes around 30% to Forties Blend, one of five crude streams underpinning the Dated Brent benchmark. Around two thirds of the world’s physical crude market is priced using Dated Brent.
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