Rystad Energy North Sea Alert: Forties Blend (Buzzard)

March 28, 2019

Rystad Energy’s Oil Markets team has updated their Forties Blend forecast:

** For July, we forecast Forties Blend production of 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) for July 2019 as Buzzard drops to 94,000 bpd due to field maintenance

** For August, we expect Forties Blend production to drop further to 280,000 bpd while Buzzard output recovers to 115,000 bpd as other Forties feeding fields go into maintenance

** We expect the average sulfur content of Forties Blend to decrease to 0.69 %wt for July 2019 from 0.77 %wt for June 2019, before increasing to 0.83 %wt for August 2019

 “We expected a minor maintenance campaign at Buzzard for July 2019, ahead of peak maintenance impact for Forties Blend feeding fields excluding Buzzard in the first half of August 2019,” says Milan Rudel, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy.

“However, we continue to forecast relatively little maintenance impact at Buzzard for 2019 as we expect a major shut-in for 2020 due to the FPS closure and Buzzard Phase 2 tie-in,” Rudel added.

The Buzzard field off the coast of Scotland is the second largest North Sea oil field in terms of current production after Troll. Buzzard is said to have outsized importance in setting the oil price, as it contributes around 30% to Forties Blend, one of five crude streams underpinning the Dated Brent benchmark. Around two thirds of the world’s physical crude market is priced using Dated Brent.

A bar chart showing Forties Blend production and sulfur content forecast for 2018 and 2019

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Contacts

Milan Rudel
Analyst, Oil Markets
Phone: +47 24 00 42 00
milan.rudel@rystadenergy.com

Morten Bertelsen
Media Relations
Phone: +47 951 98 742
morten.bertelsen@rystadenergy.com


About Rystad Energy

Rystad Energy is an independent energy research and business intelligence company providing data, tools, analytics and consultancy services to the global energy industry. Our products and services cover energy fundamentals and the global and regional upstream, oilfield services and renewable energy industries, tailored to analysts, managers and executives alike. Rystad Energy’s headquarters are located in Oslo, Norway. Further presence has been established in London, New York, Houston, Stavanger, Moscow, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Bangalore, Tokyo, Sydney and Dubai.