In addition to frequent press releases and morning comments, Rystad Energy is starting a new line of media publications, called ‘A CLOSER LOOK’. In this communication series we will offer a glimpse of our in-depth monthly regional reports, highlighting trends and providing an outlook on production and spending, among other interesting data findings.
We are beginning this series with a closer look at the Bakken/Three Forks Shale Play. Below is our outlook for the region’s production and spending, followed by a summary of the latest activity, well configuration and productivity trends:
Medium-term production forecast:
Production in the Bakken/Three Forks Shale Play is set to dive to 1.75 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2020, from 2.02 million boepd in 2019 – it will decline even further to 1.63 million boepd in 2021.
However, undrilled risked locations are expected to add sufficient production in order to allow the region’s total output to rise again from 2022 onwards. Production is expected to peak at 2025, but upside potential exists to drive it even higher in the long term.
Medium-term spending forecast:
Drilling and completion spending by the region’s top 10 operators is set to plunge to $4.17 billion in 2020, less than half of the $10.23 billion worth of spending seen in 2019. It is set to decline even further to $3.89 billion in 2021, after which time it will begin to recover. Nevertheless, it is unlikely to reach 2019 levels before 2028.
The spending picture is similar for other operators in the Bakken/Three Forks Shale Play. Their cumulative spending will be reduced by almost a third in 2020, reaching $1.32 billion, down from 2019’s $3.64 billion.
With regards to well configuration data, 2Q data is still incomplete for most states in the US, therefore we provide estimates for the latest quarter with sufficient visibility, 1Q. As for productivity, due to the time frame needed to estimate 30-day IP and EUR, these metrics are provided as of 4Q 2019.
For more analysis, insights and reports, clients and non-clients can apply for access to Rystad Energy’s Free Solutions and get a taste of our data and analytics universe.
Vice President North American Shale
Phone: +47 24 00 42 00
Media Relations Manager
Phone: +47 90228994
About Rystad Energy
Rystad Energy is an independent energy research and business intelligence company providing data, tools, analytics and consultancy services to the global energy industry. Our products and services cover energy fundamentals and the global and regional upstream, oilfield services and renewable energy industries, tailored to analysts, managers and executives alike. Rystad Energy’s headquarters are located in Oslo, Norway with offices in London, New York, Houston, Aberdeen, Stavanger, Moscow, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Bangalore, Tokyo, Sydney and Dubai.