Current pace of EV sales in Norway sets the stage for rapid future vehicle fleet electrification

December 28, 2018

Battery Electric Vehicle and Plug-in Hybrid sales in Norway skyrocketed from 300 vehicles sold per month (3% market share) at the beginning of 2013 to over 6,000, or close to 60% of all new passenger vehicle sales between September and November 2018.

Chart showing new vehicle sales in Norway, comparing BEVs, PHEVs and conventional (diesel/gasoline)

What does this shift mean for gasoline and diesel demand? Passenger vehicles comprise 23% of global oil demand and have been one of the main drivers of demand growth in recent years, illustrating the impact EVs could have on the market. If EVs were to displace even half of this, it would be roughly equivalent to removing the entire Chinese oil products demand (13 million bpd in 2018) from the market.

Norway is a pivotal market and the government set an aspirational target that 100% of new vehicles sales would be zero-emission cars by 2025. Given low rural EV sales potential and penetration, we forecast electric vehicles gradually taking conventional vehicles’ market share, exceeding 60% of all new vehicle sales in 2019, 90% in 2022 and 100% in 2025. With that Norway loses around one-third of transportation gasoline and diesel oil demand by 2025.

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