press release

Electric vehicle sales and oil demand destruction forecast

August 24, 2018
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Despite the fact that electric vehicle sales constituted 48% of all new car sales in Norway in the first quarter of 2018, Rystad Energy has not observed a significant change in transport fuel consumption at the country-level. From Q1 2013 to Q1 2018, demand for motor transport fuel remained roughly unchanged at 56,000 bpd. we estimate that electric vehicle sales lowered gasoline and diesel consumption in the country by 3% in 2016 and 4% in 2017, but we believe that the effect of electric vehicles on total fuel consumption was masked due to persistent conventional vehicle sales: over 40,000 diesel and gasoline vehicles, or 42% of total new car sales, were sold in Norway during the first half of 2018.

For the same reason, we anticipate that transport fuel consumption on a country-level will not be materially affected before the second half of 2019. However, in the scenario of the subsidy schemes remaining in place in Norway, electric vehicle sales will continue at the current trajectory and reach 140,000 units annually in 2022. Nearly 92% of all light-duty vehicles sold in Norway in 2022 would be electric, and we will see approximately 8,000 bpd, or 14% of total transport fuel demand, displaced relative to 2013 levels. The oil demand will continue to be curtailed as we see electric vehicle sales progress and conventional vehicle sales decline, which will lift the electric vehicles’ share of the total light-duty vehicle fleet from 5.4% at present to 27% in 2022.

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Artyom Tchen
Senior Analyst
Phone: +47 24 00 42 00
Mobile: +47 45 39 10 61

Zhaidary Borambayeva
Marketing Manager
Phone: +47 24 00 42 00
Mobile: +47 90 82 09 48

About Rystad Energy

Rystad Energy is an independent energy research and business intelligence company providing data, tools, analytics and consultancy services to the global energy industry. 

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