Gas production in the Middle East

August 31, 2018

The Middle Eastern gas production is expected to grow from 506 Bcm in 2011 to 712 Bcm in 2021. This regional growth will predominantly be driven by Iran. Despite Trump’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), we see the country adding 109 Bcm to its annual production between 2011 and 2021. Since nearly all gas fields in the country are owned and operated by national companies and the gas is mostly consumed domestically, the reinstated sanctions will have a limited effect on overall gas production. However, the exception is Total, which has delayed the development of its South Pars (Phase 11) pending a sanctions waiver.

Although we see additional volumes from Qatar between 2011 and 2021 owing to the startup of Qatargas 4 and the Barzan project, most of the future Qatari growth is set to come after 2021.

The annual Saudi Arabian gas production is forecasted to increase by 41 Bcm between 2011 and 2021, which is the largest contribution by a single country in the region besides Iran.

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