Rystad Energy estimates that oil sands and the Arctic continue to be the most expensive resources, with an average breakeven price of 75-80 $/boe. The attractiveness of the resources has declined over the past years, mainly as a result of the introduction of North American shale. The break-even price of NA shale is estimated at an average of 60-70 $/boe.
Offshore is still in the race with lower break-even prices than U.S. and Canadian shale developments (ultra-deepwater at 55-60 $/boe; deepwater at 50-55 $/boe and offshore shelf at 40-45$/boe).
“Though offshore projects have recently experienced a slowdown in investment levels, this decline is part of a natural cycle, and activity levels are expected to increase again. Both Deepwater and Ultradeepwater are necessary to develop in order to meet our demand outlook of around 100 million boe/d in 2020,” says Espen Erlingsen, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy.
Rystad Energy’s demand outlook is just above IEA’s demand outlook of 98 million boe/d in 2020.