September 27, 2019
Here are the countries that are “locked and loaded” to fill the oil supply gap left by the attack on Saudi Arabia, according to Rystad Energy’s field-by-field analysis:
“This basically shows us that by barrel count, OPEC+ members could step in and fill the supply gap, but the tricky part will be matching Saudi Arabia’s flagship crude blend – Arab Light – which makes up about 70% of the Kingdom’s crude production,” said Bjørnar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets research at Rystad Energy. “Russia’s Urals Blend has similar gravity and sulfur characteristics to Arab Light, and thus would be a logical match.”
Rystad Energy normally defines spare capacity as a country’s unutilized capacity, including any current outages. In this case, however – given the short-term urgency of delivering the volumes in question – we have excluded outages in our estimate, as these barrels are offline for the coming weeks/months and therefore would not be available to be produced, refined and shipped in such a short timeline. Rystad Energy also notes that the Kingdom has lost 700,000 bpd of NGL production and gas condensate as a result of the attack, but this particular analysis focuses exclusively on crude oil supply.
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