Here are the countries that can replace lost Saudi crude

September 27, 2019

Here are the countries that are “locked and loaded” to fill the oil supply gap left by the attack on Saudi Arabia, according to Rystad Energy’s field-by-field analysis:

  • Neutral Zone: around 520,000 bpd
  • Iraq: around 290,000 bpd
  • Russia: around 270,000 bpd
  • UAE: around 280,000 bpd
  • Kuwait: around 146,000 bpd

“This basically shows us that by barrel count, OPEC+ members could step in and fill the supply gap, but the tricky part will be matching Saudi Arabia’s flagship crude blend – Arab Light – which makes up about 70% of the Kingdom’s crude production,” said Bjørnar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets research at Rystad Energy. “Russia’s Urals Blend has similar gravity and sulfur characteristics to Arab Light, and thus would be a logical match.”

Graph showing total US fracking rate by FracFocus database release time Source: FracFocus Chemical Disclosure Registry and Rystad Energy research and analysis###

Note:

Rystad Energy normally defines spare capacity as a country’s unutilized capacity, including any current outages. In this case, however – given the short-term urgency of delivering the volumes in question – we have excluded outages in our estimate, as these barrels are offline for the coming weeks/months and therefore would not be available to be produced, refined and shipped in such a short timeline. Rystad Energy also notes that the Kingdom has lost 700,000 bpd of NGL production and gas condensate as a result of the attack, but this particular analysis focuses exclusively on crude oil supply.

###

Contacts

Bjørnar Tonhaugen
Head of Oil Market Research
Phone: +47 24 00 42 00
bjornar.tonhaugen@rystadenergy.com


Morten Bertelsen
Vice President of Media Relations
Phone: +47 951 98 742
morten.bertelsen@rystadenergy.com

About Rystad Energy
Rystad Energy is an independent energy research and business intelligence company providing data, tools, analytics and consultancy services to the global energy industry. Our products and services cover energy fundamentals and the global and regional upstream, oilfield services and renewable energy industries, tailored to analysts, managers and executives alike. Rystad Energy’s headquarters are located in Oslo, Norway with offices in London, New York, Houston, Aberdeen, Stavanger, Moscow, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Bangalore, Kuala Lumpur, Tokyo, Sydney and Dubai.