Rystad Energy confirms potential for US self-sufficiency in liquids supply

April 26, 2012

APRIL 26th, 2012
Bottom-up analysis confirms that the USA and Canada could become near self-supplied on oil within ten years, according to Jarand Rystad, a Norwegian-based analyst.

“The combined effect of shale oil, tight oil, offshore oil, oil sands and NGLs could grow to near 20 million barrels per day within ten years. This is almost sufficient to match the U.S. and Canadian demand at that time. Only minor imports from South America are needed to be in balance. Oil from other regions will no longer be needed”, he said at the DUG Conference in Forth Worth, TX, this week.

The importance of self-sufficiency in energy and how this will change the geopolitical scene was underlined by Former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who also spoke at the conference.

In relation to shale potential, Mr. Rystad also raised the impact this has on global economy. “Without these volumes, oil prices would have been higher – with a devastating effect on the global economy. You have developed a new technology that will make enormous amounts of energy available for the global community, so good job America,” he called out to 1,500 industry delegates, which responded with a spontaneous applause in the middle of his speech.

“The short-term challenges for the industry related to low gas prices should be seen as an opportunity for you to develop new technologies for gas consumption. This is important seen from a climate perspective. It will also create long-term demand for natural gas. However, do not expect to see high gas prices over the few years.

Our gas supply cost curve indicates that marginal cost of delivering on the demand in 2015 is USD 3.8 per MMbtu”, Rystad concluded.

Jarand Rystad is heading Rystad Energy, one of the largest independent analyst firms in the oil and gas industry. The company is headquartered in Oslo, Norway, and has specialized on global shale gas analysis and shale oil potential. The DUG 2012 conference (Developing Unconventional Gas) was hosted by Hart Energy and held at the Convention Center in Fort Worth, TX, on April 24th and April 25th, 2012.