June 3, 2013
Norwegian production to peak around 2022
Figure 1: Production profile for total NCS oil and gas production by lifecycle- kboe/d. (Source: UCube from Rystad Energy)
As shown in the NCS production profile, 2012 was a good year for NCS production. For the first time since the installation of Snøhvit and Ormen Lange in 2007, oil and gas production increased from one year to another. The increase was primarily driven by higher demand for Norwegian gas. Going forward, it is expected that output from producing fields will decrease (brown colors).
However, going forward towards 2020 NCS production is expected to grow, as fields that are currently under construction will come online (yellow colors). From 2013 to 2015 around 27 new fields are expected to commence production versus only 10 new fields from 2010 to 2012. At the beginning of the next decade the production has the potential to peak at above 4 million barrels oe per day as exceptional exploration results of the previous years are turned into production and old discoveries are finally ready for development (green colors).
The ongoing and future exploration activity is expected to materialize into new discoveries. The potential from this activity is believed to contribute with 70% of the total 2040 production.
NCS spending continue to grow
Figure 2: Total Norwegian E&P spending from 2003 to 2018- BNOK nominal. (Source: UCube from Rystad Energy)
Figure 2 shows total E&P spending levels for Norway split by Exploration, Operation and Capital Expenditure. For 2013 total spending is estimated to be 266 BNOK, of which around 180 BNOK is Capex. Total spending is about 60% higher compared to 2010 levels.
As illustrated in the production graph, about 50% of the production in 2020 will come from not yet producing fields. This indicates that significant investments are needed for new infrastructure. This is reflected in the spending chart by growth in the capex segment. In addition to new infrastructure, existing fields are expected to have high activity levels related to new drilling campaigns, modifications and maintenance going forward.
Production costs are also expected to increase as development projects and discoveries are turned into output. Going forward, the exploration activity is estimated to stay at about 35 BNOK annually. Together, the annual growth in spending from 2012 to 2018 is estimated to be 7%.
Norway – one of the best in the class
Figure 3: Offshore discovered volumes 2010-2012 for Top 10 countries by oil and gas- Mmboe. (Source: UCube from Rystad Energy)
Norway has had exceptionally good exploration results over the last three years. In terms of total offshore discovered volumes, Norway found 5.2 billion barrels oe from 2010-2012. This makes Norway the third largest country in terms of discoveries, right after Brazil with 16.2 billion barrels oe and Mozambique with 11.7 billion barrels oe from 2010-2012.
The exploration was also characterized by the high liquid content. Approximately 80% of the NCS discovered resources were liquids, translating into the highest liquid content of all countries worldwide. In addition, this puts Norway in second place in temrs od discovered liquid volumes.
Contact: Espen Erlingsen, Analyst
Phone: +47 24 00 42 00
Mobile: +47 41 44 77 61
Contact: Julia Weiss, Marketing Manager
Phone: +47 24 00 42 90
Mobile: +47 48 29 87 61
About Rystad Energy
Rystad Energy is an independent oil and gas consulting services and business intelligence data firm offering global databases, strategy consulting and research products.
Rystad Energy is fully owned by the management. It is vital to maintain this independence in operations. We consist of highly qualified and experienced consultants, analysts, technology as well as support people that help enhance and create a complete product and service delivery. Our extensive knowledge on global and local markets is driven by the engagement of our international staff members.
Rystad Energy’s products and services are intended for E&P and oilfield service companies, investors, investment banks and governments. We deliver:
• Global databases – online, complete and integrated field-by-field databases covering the E&P and oilfield service industry
• Consulting services – providing support on strategy, transactions, market assessments, macro trends, etc.
• Research products – multi-client reports and tools on selected regional topics, including NASAnalysis products
Rystad Energy’s headquarters are located in Oslo, Norway, with additional research teams in India. Further presence has been established in the UK (London), USA (New York & Houston), Russia (Moscow), for Africa as well as South East Asia.
About the Author
Espen Erlingsen is the lead NCS Analyst at Rystad Energy. His areas of expertise include company and acreage valuation, breakeven price analysis and international petroleum fiscal regimes. Espen holds an M.Sc. in Industrial Economics from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
UCube is an online, complete, and integrated field-by-field database, including reserves, production profiles, financial figures, ownership, and other key parameters for all oil and gas fields, discoveries, and exploration licenses globally. UCube includes 65,000 oil and gas fields and licenses, portfolios of 3,200 companies, and it covers the time span from 1900 to 2100.