March 23, 2020
The Covid-19 virus and the ongoing oil price war have created such a large global supply surplus that Western Canada’s oil production will need to be cut from April by some 11%, or 440,000 barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates, as the country is days away from running out of available storage capacity.
Western Canada’s storage infrastructure has a generally accepted maximum storage capacity of approximately 40 million barrels. Based on our calculations, more than 30 million barrels of crude oil and diluted bitumen is already held in storage, and the volume is likely to edge towards the high end of capacity by the end of March under current production assumptions.
As a result, Western Canada’s oil production, which Rystad Energy expected to reach some 4 million bpd in its pre-coronavirus estimate, will now probably have to be cut by a total of 440,000 barrels to balance local storage volumes around 35 million barrels. This incorporates at least a 75% reduction in crude-by-rail exports to 100,000 bpd.
In the second quarter last year, Western Canada’s oil production amounted to about 3.94 million bpd.
Stay up to date and get immediate email notification when we publish COVID-19 related reports and press releases. Sign up here
“Compounding the situation is the near-certainty of a steep reduction in crude-by-rail exports this year, as well as deferral of spring maintenance at several key oil sands mining projects,” says Thomas Liles, Rystad Energy’s Senior Analyst.
Learn more in Rystad Energy’s OilMarketCube.
On 11 March, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney raised the possibility of production curtailments, but reductions have not yet been officially announced by the provincial government.
If the cuts occur due to government policy they will likely apply to the biggest operators (as was the case for government-mandated curtailments in 2019), but some operators may cut production on their own as well due to coronavirus-related staffing issues and demand insufficiency.
So far, most operators have not been very vocal on the issue of near-term cuts, although some of the major players have revised their full-year production guidance downwards.
Canada also produces oil offshore Newfoundland and Labrador on its east coast, where on 22 March Husky Energy announced it was suspending construction activities at its West White Rose expansion to prevent the spread of Covid-19 among construction staff.
For more analysis, insights and reports, clients and non-clients can apply for access to Rystad Energy’s Free Solutions and get a taste of our data and analytics universe.
Phone: +47 24 00 42 00
Media Relations Manager
Phone: +47 90228994
About Rystad Energy
Rystad Energy is an independent energy research and business intelligence company providing data, tools, analytics and consultancy services to the global energy industry. Our products and services cover energy fundamentals and the global and regional upstream, oilfield services and renewable energy industries, tailored to analysts, managers and executives alike. Rystad Energy’s headquarters are located in Oslo, Norway with offices in London, New York, Houston, Aberdeen, Stavanger, Moscow, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Bangalore, Tokyo, Sydney and Dubai.