Press Release: Shale oil poses no threat to offshore

August 28, 2012

Skiferolje ingen trussel mot offshore (Norwegian, original version)

Flere analytikere, blant annet fra DNB, har over de siste dagene antydet at oljeprisen mot slutten av dette tiåret kan bli betydelig svekket i forhold til i dag. Hovedgrunnen til dette skal være at olje-etterspørselen vokser saktere enn tidligere forventet samt at skiferoljen vil gi store produksjonsvolumer som ikke var kjent for bare noe få år siden. En konsekvens av dette er at dyr offshore olje- og gass kan bli skjøvet ut av markedet, blir det hevdet. Dersom dette er riktig, er det dårlige nyheter for oljebransjen som i disse dager møtes på ONS.


Rystad Energy, et uavhengig norsk analyseselskap innenfor olje og gass, er ikke enig i konklusjonen fra disse analysene, og mener at de bygger på flere feilslutninger og et svakt fakta-materiale. Rystad vil presentere sine analyser i Stavanger på onsdag, og vil der hevde at oljeprisene i gjennomsnitt vil forbli sterke ut tiåret, og at man mer enn noen gang har behov for offshore olje og gass, samt offshore leverandørindustri.


«En åpenbar svakhet i de analysene vi har sett er at de undervurderer hvor stor del av veksten som uansett må komme fra offshore. Vi er enig med DNB at veksten fra skiferolje kan bli så mye som 4.5 millioner fat per dag. Men i tillegg trengs 15 millioner fat per dag i ny offshore olje og 3 millioner nye fat per dag fra oljesand.
Dette er olje verden virkelig trenger, men det vil ikke skje av seg selv. Her kreves store investeringer som igjen krever robuste oljepriser», sier Jarand Rystad i en kommentar.


«I tillegg er det sårbarhet i andre antatte vekstområder, slik som Irak, Kasakhstan og Venezuela. Man skal være en glad optimist for å tro at det ikke blir forsinkelser her. For øvrig er vi enig i etterspørselsprognosene som er lagt frem», avslutter Rystad.


Foredraget:
«E&P outlook – is shale a threat to offshore oil and gas?» av Jarand Rystad
Radisson Blu Royal Hotel, Stavanger, 29.08.2012, kl. 15:30.

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Shale oil is poses no threat to offshore (English version, own translation)

Several analysts, among them some from renown companies and their exceptional analyst teams, have recently pointed out that the oil price will be significantly weakened compared to the prices today; the main reason cited for this being a slower increase in demand than predicted.


In addition, there is an unexpected yet high productivity from shale fields. The extraction from these fields were until recently not expected to be so high. A consequence of the aforementioned factors may – according to these researches - be that the exorbitant prices of offshore oil and gas will in turn drive these two segments out of the market. If this is proven true, it may be bad news for the oil industry and professionals that will be meeting at ONS this year.

 

Rystad Energy, an independent analysis company in the oil and gas sector disagrees with the conclusion. They believe it is based on what may be considered miscalculations and lack of strong factual foundation. Rystad Energy will present their analysis of this field in Stavanger on Wednesday where they will maintain and discuss the reasons why the oil prices will remain high on average and throughout the decade, and that at the present time the offshore oil and gas industry is greatly needed. Some might even argue, now more than ever.

 

In a comment from Jarand Rystad, Managing Partner of Rystad Energy:"An apparent shortcoming in the analysis’ we´ve seen is that the significance of growth that will have to come from the offshore sector in any scenario is underestimated. We do however, agree with researches from DNB in that the growth of shale oil can be up to 4.5 million barrels per day. In any event, there will be a need for an additional 15 million barrels per day from new offshore and 3 million barrels from new oil sands. This is oil that the world sorely needs, but it will not happen on its own. It requires investments, which in turn will create robust oil prices.


He also adds that "in addition to this, there are vulnerabilities in other assumed growth areas such as Iraq, Kazakhstan and Venezuela. One has to be a real optimist to believe that there will be no delays in these areas. Otherwise, we agree with the demand prognosis made."

Presentation
«E&P outlook – is shale a threat to offshore oil and gas?» By Jarand Rystad
Radisson Blu Royal Hotel, Stavanger, 29.08.2012, 3:30 PM


If you would like to receive more information about this topic or wish to book an interview, please contact Jarand Rystad, Managing Partner (tlf: 24 00 42 14) or Julia Weiss, Marketing Manager (tlf: 24 00 42 90).