How the worst oil crisis ever recorded could end in energy abundance

Let’s Talk Energy and assess the possible long-term impacts of the war in the Middle East. The conflict has brought the geopolitics of energy and near-term market disruptions into sharp focus, as the world struggles with higher oil and natural gas prices and tighter supplies overall.

But underlying fundamentals, which pointed to growing oversupply in both oil and, to a lesser extent, gas markets, persist despite war-driven distortions.

And while no one can predict how long it could take for the US and Iran to reach an agreement to resolve the war, the two sides continue to negotiate and – at times – say they are making progress.

• How long could the war-driven shortages and price inflation that we see today persist after the US and Iran reach some sort of agreement to end the conflict and fully re-open the Strait of Hormuz?

• What changes to energy trade flows or policies could be more lasting and what shifts might be less durable as countries and markets digest this shock and steel themselves against future ones?

• Which factors will be most important to watch to determine how the world ultimately recovers from a massive shock to the energy system?