Uncertainty defines the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026/27. LNG is trading above $30 per MMBtu, and gas inventory is markedly lower in key markets. Europe enters the season with its lowest storage of the 2020s and will have to pay dearly to keep US cargoes from heading to Asia. Northeast Asia is likely to face a mild winter, and expensive LNG and improved nuclear availability are curbing gas demand and boosting coal burn. In the US, Henry Hub is expected to peak around $4 per MMBtu, insulated from the global rally. El Niño and the Strait of Hormuz add the most uncertainty, with Colombia, Brazil and Egypt as X-factors. A recovery of Middle Eastern LNG supply by 2Q27 could still ease the market, so participants should plan for a wide range of outcomes.