Oil Trading Market Outlook: Demand destruction is here, but not where you may think
Oil Trading Market Update: Demand destruction is here, but not where you may think
21 April 2026
Oil Trading Market Update 21 April 2026
The Strait of Hormuz disruption — the largest in history — has severed Middle Eastern crude flows and upended European refining economics. Physical markets have repriced sharply. Futures have not. The gap between them is now driving behaviour that makes the supply crisis structurally worse.
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April flows are 16m bpd below pre-war levels with no meaningful recovery before July
Physical differentials and freight add $35–45/bbl over screen, turning positive paper margins negative
Asia is outbidding Europe for crude and product alike
Europe needs 260,000 bpd of additional throughput in April while refiners are cutting instead
