Carbon intensity is shaping future flows

The carbon footprint of a traded barrel or cargo of LNG will increasingly be treated as a commercial variable. Regulatory frameworks such as the EU Methane Regulation (EU MR) are beginning to attach financial consequences to the emissions embedded in physically traded hydrocarbons, and upcoming developments with the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will extend this further. The ability to track, benchmark and report carbon intensity across value chains is moving from a compliance exercise to a source of competitive advantage.

Emissions data only creates value when it can be applied at decision points. With regulatory shifts like the EU Methane Regulation set to attach costs to import emissions, this partnership puts our asset-level data directly into the workflows where trading, procurement and compliance decisions are made

The shift toward tracking product-level carbon footprints, rather than viewing emissions purely through a corporate lens, represents a meaningful evolution in how the industry approaches sustainability. Under the EU MR, imports of hydrocarbons with methane emissions above an allowable threshold will face fees as early as 2030, with potential ripple effects on trade flows into the European Union. Even in the United States, where federal support for environmental regulation has softened, interest in carbon-footprint-based levies is growing, particularly where US producers outperform higher-emitting competitors.

The variation in emissions across traded molecules is substantial. For LNG delivered to Europe, average cargo intensities from Nigeria and the US are broadly similar at around 78 and 80 kilograms of CO₂ equivalent per barrel of oil equivalent (kg CO₂e/boe) respectively. But underpinning those averages is significant differentiation: US LNG cargoes range from as low as 44 kg to more than 100 kg CO₂e/boe depending on the upstream basin, liquefaction facility and transport chain involved. Upstream methane intensity alone can vary by more than 40 kg CO₂e/boe between key supply basins.

Crude oil flows present their own complexity. Unlike natural gas, crude varies significantly in composition, and each grade must be matched to specific refinery configurations. Even when processed at the same facility, barrels from different origins exhibit markedly different emission profiles. Sourcing Johan Sverdrup crude instead of West Texas Intermediate for delivery to the same European refinery can reduce pre-refining emissions by roughly 25 kg CO₂e/boe, driven by electrified upstream operations and shorter transport distances.

Rystad Energy and Kinertic's partnership

Rystad Energy's Emissions Solution provides harmonized Scope 1 to 3 emissions data, including satellite-detected methane releases, trade-linked emissions insights and detailed breakdowns by emission source and greenhouse gas type, standardized across companies, geographies and sources. This consistency enables defensible benchmarking suitable for commercial analysis, portfolio modeling and compliance reporting.

Kinertic's platform makes this data operationally deployable. Users can define each node in a supply chain, from upstream assets and export facilities through transport modes to intermediate and end-use destinations, and generate standardized, auditable emissions reports that transparently show methodology, data inputs and calculations. The platform supports pre- and post-trade carbon accounting, Scope 3 quantification and regulatory exposure assessment.

Together, these capabilities close the gap between emissions intelligence and commercial action. As carbon intensity grows in importance through hydrocarbon trade, the combination of Rystad Energy's asset-level emissions data and Kinertic's platform gives market participants a practical way to quantify, compare and report the carbon footprint of specific cargoes and trade routes.

Authors:

Patrick King
Vice President, Head of Emissions Research
Patrick.King@rystadenergy.com

Rishi Kashyap
Product Marketing Manager, Carbon & Scenarios
Rishi.Kashyap@rystadenergy.com