From academic estimates to ground truth: how Rystad Energy is helping shape global LNG emissions policy

Summary

SEA-LNG used Rystad Energy's vessel-level emissions tracking and LNG trade flow data to produce a landmark white paper, the findings of which were submitted to the International Maritime Organization and endorsed by Norway and South Korea

Highlights

  • Cargo-level precision: Rystad Energy tracked emissions for every LNG cargo delivered globally, vessel by vessel, from production to point of use
  • Backed by governments: Norway and South Korea endorsed the findings for submission to the IMO to help set allowable emissions factors for marine fuels
  • Three data streams, one study: Shipping, trade flows and asset-level emissions profiles were combined in a single analysis, a capability no other provider could offer

The challenge: replacing academic estimates with real-world data

Existing well-to-tank emissions studies for LNG relied heavily on academic literature, with researchers citing earlier papers rather than drawing on live, asset-level data. This approach produced estimates that failed to capture regional variation, vessel-by-vessel differences or the actual conditions across global supply chains.

SEA-LNG is focused on advancing LNG as a marine fuel needed a more accurate, defensible view of well-to-tank emissions to support its advocacy work. Their goal in this project was to provide a ground-truth account of LNG emissions across the full value chain: from production and liquefaction through to shipping and bunkering, at a level of granularity that could withstand technical scrutiny from engineers, regulators and policymakers.

Without access to integrated, asset-level data spanning the entire LNG value chain, producing a study credible enough for submission to the International Maritime Organization was not possible.

Partnering with Rystad Energy: full value chain tracking, cargo by cargo

SEA-LNG worked with Rystad Energy to produce a comprehensive white paper on LNG well-to-tank emissions. Rystad Energy was the only provider able to cover the full value chain at the required level of detail, combining three distinct capabilities within a single organisation.

The first was shipping and bunkering data, capturing full global overviews of all bunkered LNG volumes. The second was global LNG trade flow tracking, following individual cargoes from liquefaction plants through to delivery. The third was detailed emissions profiles for every detailed emissions profiles for every LNG cargo, from upstream well to delivery into bunkering locations. This was built from high-resolution satellite data and linked to specific fields and facilities.

These three data streams were integrated to produce a study that reflected actual conditions rather than modelled assumptions. Rystad Energy's analysts worked directly on the report, applying deep technical expertise across all three work streams to ensure the findings met the standard required for regulatory submission.

Results: policy influence backed by data that held up to technical review

The white paper produced in collaboration with Rystad Energy delivered results that went beyond the original scope of the project:

  • Regulatory submission. The report was submitted to the International Maritime Organization as part of the process to set allowable emissions factors for marine fuels, directly influencing how LNG is assessed as a transition fuel.

  • Endorsed by two nation states. Norway and South Korea both formally backed the findings, lending their maritime regulatory authority to the numbers Rystad Energy's data produced. This level of governmental support was a direct outcome of the technical rigour behind the analysis.

  • Technical credibility under scrutiny. The data and methodology were reviewed line by line by technical engineers familiar with LNG operations. The fact that the findings withstood that level of examination reflected the quality and depth of Rystad Energy's vessel-level and asset-level data.

  • First-of-its-kind analysis. The study represented a new standard in LNG emissions reporting: moving from academic proxies to cargo-level, satellite-informed tracking across the full global supply chain.

This landmark report sets new standards for well-to-tank emissions analysis, providing the rigorous, data-driven foundation that policymakers and industry need to make informed decisions on LNG as a marine fuel.

SEA-LNG

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