European data center power purchase agreement (PPA) volumes fell from 4.2 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to 2.6 GW in 2025, even as capacity buildout accelerated sharply. The drop reflects offshore wind delays, and increased challenges in agreeing on PPA price points due to falling capture rates and rising frequency of negative wholesale power price hours, particularly for solar PV. In addition, the race to secure power has led some major hyperscalers to reassess their clean energy ambitions, moderating one of the key demand signals that had supported European renewable PPA activity. The gap between surging capacity and declining PPA activity raises urgent questions about how new data center load will be powered.
Capacity set to more than double by 2030
European data center capacity is forecast to grow from 16 GW in 2024 to 36 GW by 2030, with about 12 GW added in the final two years alone, matching total European capacity as recently as 2022. The primary driver is surging demand for artificial intelligence (AI) compute, which is pushing hyperscalers and co-location operators to scale aggressively across the continent.
The UK, Germany, France and the Netherlands attract the largest new capacity volumes, but growth is increasingly distributed. Ireland, Spain, Sweden, Norway, Italy and Finland are all gaining share as operators move beyond congested primary hubs where grid and permitting constraints are extending timelines. The Nordic countries are particularly competitive, offering abundant low-carbon hydropower and lower ambient temperatures that reduce cooling costs.
PPA volumes drop across all technologies
Annual PPA volumes have trended downward over the past two years. Offshore wind – previously the largest-volume segment – has been hit hardest: signed volumes fell from 1.35 GW in 2024 to 0.5 GW in 2025 and reached just 100 megawatts (MW) in the first quarter of 2026, representing a single Google offtake from EnBW's He Dreiht farm in Germany. Solar PV deals have also contracted, weighed down by falling capture rates and a rising frequency of negative wholesale price hours across key European markets.
Data center-related PPAs accounted for 20% of total European offtake between 2024 and the first quarter of 2026, the second-largest share behind manufacturing and industrial buyers.
Three structural factors explain the decline. Offshore wind delays have removed the large-volume contracts that drove the 2024 peak. A pricing disconnect has also emerged between developer ask prices and what offtakers are willing to pay, particularly in solar. In addition, several large operators have softened their clean energy commitments: Microsoft is reportedly reconsidering its 24/7 carbon-free energy pledge following rising emissions since its 2020 climate commitment, while Google has recently stated that it will be difficult to reach their hourly electricity consumption matching target by 2030.
US tech majors dominate; Spain and the Netherlands lead by market
Amazon, Google and Microsoft account for the bulk of European data center PPA activity. Amazon alone has signed more than 3 GW since 2024, spread across offshore wind, solar and hybrid structures. Spain leads all markets with more than 2 GW across 12 deals, anchored by Amazon's 596 MW hybrid agreement across wind and solar farms and Merlin Properties' 213 MW solar-plus-storage deal with Solaria Energia, signed on a reported record term of 40 years. The Netherlands ranks second, driven by large offshore wind contracts and Equinix's 250 MW nuclear PPA with ULC Energy.
The nuclear and hybrid structures that emerged in 2025 are notable. They point to offtakers seeking more baseload-like supply as intermittent renewables alone prove insufficient to meet always-on data center load.
What to watch
The pipeline of projects scheduled for commissioning between 2026 and 2028 will be the first indicator of whether data center demand can re-energize the PPA market. This includes Amazon and OX2's 367 MW Rajamenkyla wind farm in Finland and Nexwell Power's solar-plus-battery projects. A recovery in offshore wind, particularly as delayed projects reach final investment decisions, would be the most significant catalyst for a return to 2024 volume levels. If hyperscalers revive firm clean energy commitments under regulatory or reputational pressure, demand for nuclear and hybrid structures, the formats most resilient in 2025, could accelerate further.
Authors:
Odin Foldvik Eikeland
Senior Analyst, Europe Renewables & Power Research
odin.eikeland@rystadenergy.com
Ida Gaasland
Senior Analyst, Data Center Research
ida.elisabeth.gaasland@rystadenergy.com
This article draws on insights from our latest commentary, "European data center PPAs slump but capacity buildout accelerates". The full analysis is available to clients via the Client Portal.
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