Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), the national climate targets underpinning the Paris Agreement, define each country’s pathway toward lower emissions and long-term decarbonization. In our Global Energy Scenarios 2025 report, we analyzed over 400 published NDCs to assess whether the global energy system is on track to align with the agreement. Our analysis shows that the global commitment stated in the NDCs can deliver a 26% reduction in emissions from current levels by 2035. This is an ambitious trajectory consistent with keeping global warming below 2.0 degrees, but it remains insufficient to reach the 1.5-degree lower-bound target.

This report looks at the 2025 submission of the third round of NDCs (NDC 3.0). These submissions indicate continuity rather than a step change in ambition. While several countries have reported higher reduction percentages, much of this reflects the extension of target years from 2030 to 2035 rather than stronger underlying policy action.