Oil demand outlook: From a 2030 demand plateau to a 40M bpd swing by 2050
Publication
07 September 2026
Global oil markets are entering a new phase. Stronger economic growth is colliding with faster efficiency gains, electrification and fuel substitution, reshaping demand, supply and prices through 2050. Our latest Oil Macro Scenarios Report unpacks what's changing and why the transition will be gradual, uneven and highly sector-specific.
Demand: Peaks at 107.5M bpd in 2030, falls to 88M by 2050
EVs: Global share nears 30%; cars hit 84% by 2050
Supply: Peaks near 112M bpd in 2027; deepwater leads growth
Investment: 470–630B new barrels needed by 2050
Loading form...