The score sheet for energy companies seems to have evolved from being centered heavily on production growth to now giving as much attention to value creation. How might this shift affect corporate strategies in 2026?

For starters, I don’t fully accept the premise of the question, as I still see many companies focusing on production growth despite low commodity prices. ExxonMobil and Chevron have stated they’re looking for counter-cyclical M&A opportunities, while ENI and Total have stepped up frontier exploration. These four companies are also poised to deliver production growth through 2035. However, a wider trend over the past five years has been lower investments and more payout to shareholders, thus supporting the assertion that value creation – or even value distribution – has been a key priority. This trend can also be seen in the kind of investments being done, namely that shale and brownfield investments, which offer quicker generation of cash flow, are preferred ahead of greenfield projects with very long-term investments. Power companies are also communicating increased focus on capital discipline and profitability. Meanwhile, solar and wind-focused companies have generated lower average margins of late, as capture prices have been low due to cannibalization effects in many markets. Investments have shifted to storage and grid for many large utilities aiming to boost margins in renewable projects that are already underway.

Speaking of value creation, Transocean has consolidated its dominance in the offshore rig market through a $5.8 billion acquisition of rival contractor Valaris. What were the drivers of this move and what are the implications for rig markets?

Such a move by Transocean has been expected, as we have seen a significant reduction in the number of oil companies buying offshore rig services, dropping from 95 in 2010 to 68 in 2020, and to only 44 in 2025. Transocean emerged as the leading consolidator in the rig market between 2007 and 2018, with four sizable acquisitions, but they have since been quiet – until now. After this merger, Transocean-Valaris will have a combined contract backlog of 80 rig years, lifting them from sixth and seventh place, respectively, to now hold the third-largest contract pipeline in the global offshore rig market. However, as the two largest contract backlogs belong to jack-up companies closely tied to state oil giants Aramco and ADNOC, the merged company will by far be the largest independent deepwater rig company, controlling 35% of the total drillship market and 11% of the semisub market. This broad fleet will give opportunities for optimization and cost synergies.

Jarand Rystad, Founder and CEO

Related insights:

Rapid-response webinar | Middle East conflict: Oil and gas market implications

This webinar covers the latest geopolitical developments in the Middle East and provides real-time insights into oil and gas market reactions and the implications for global upstream investment.

Special report series | Trump and Energy

Explore our ongoing special report series examining how evolving US energy policy under President Trump could reshape global oil, gas and power markets.