Sourcing, the immediate decarbonization lever for aviation
22 September 2026
The EU's 2030 mandate to blend 6% SAF into jet fuel would cut average lifecycle intensity by around 4%, from 513 to 492 kg CO2e per barrel. SAF is the designated pathway for aviation, but it costs about twice as much as conventional fuel and supply is not assured. Meanwhile, the 513 kg average hides wide variation in the fossil barrel itself.
Rystad Energy modeled the full chain from crude grade through refinery to airport for the supply routes into Arlanda, Heathrow, JFK and LAX. Routes into the same airport differ by more than the 2030 mandate saves. The gap comes from two decisions, which crude and which refinery, and both can be made today?
Inside the whitepaper:
How much the EU blending mandate cuts, year by year to 2050, and what it assumes about SAF supply
Where the emissions gap between fossil jet fuel routes opens up, and how it compares to 6% SAF
Which of the two levers, crude or refinery, moves the finished barrel more
Which supply routes into Heathrow, JFK and LAX already clear the 2030 threshold