South America is set to maintain its position as the most significant region for floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels, with 36 projects awarded or expected to be awarded between 2021 and 2030, totaling field greenfield commitments worth around $181 billion. Among these 36 projects, 25 have disclosed FPSO costs ranging from $339 million to $4.6 billion; of these, 21 have been awarded, and 15 remain to be awarded by 2030. However, the sanctioning environment has shifted since 2024, with inflation and market uncertainties creating execution challenges that have prompted delays and project redesigns across multiple developments for Brazilian state giant Petrobras. Despite these headwinds, recent awards signal market resilience, with standout contracts spanning Brazil to Guyana, Suriname, and the Falkland Islands (Malvinas).
South America's FPSO market sustains momentum with 15 projects through 2030
The outlook anticipates smaller average unit sizes compared to the ultra-large cycle earlier this decade, reflecting cost optimization pressures while maintaining South America's leadership in global FPSO demand.
Technical complexity
South America commands the largest share of global FPSO demand by unit count and represents the most technically demanding region for such projects. The 36-project pipeline through 2030 encompasses ultra-large capacity units capable of processing between 180,000 and 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) of liquids, with topside weights reaching over 40,000 – among the heaviest globally. Brazil's pre-salt developments in the Buzios, Mero and Iara fields operate at between 2,000 and 3,100 meters of water depth, requiring advanced mooring systems and high-pressure processing capabilities.
This technical complexity differentiates South America from other regions. West Africa's FPSO market trends towards units of between 100,000 and 150,000-bpd production capacity in shallower waters and with lower gas-processing requirements, while Southeast Asia’s market emphasizes gas-condensate developments over high-capacity oil production.
Brazil leads the way
Brazil's local content policy evolution introduces additional execution considerations. While Law 15.075/2024 enabled surplus transfers and Decree 12.362/2025 offered royalty incentives for Round Zero projects, Petrobras has increasingly requested local construction requirements even for projects without contractual obligations. Albacora (P-88) and Marlim Sul/Leste (P-86), both Round Zero assets, now face local content expectations despite lacking formal mandates. This approach aims to sustain Brazilian fabrication capacity while supporting the possibility of increasing local content in more complex projects, but it also adds cost and schedule uncertainty.
The production unit segment's 19% achievement against mandates of between 25% and 40% demonstrate ongoing challenges. The transfer mechanism provides flexibility – projects exceeding requirements can support those falling short – but implementation remains complex. For upcoming projects – including P-81 and P-87 (SEAP 1 and 2) and P-91 (Buzios 12) – local content negotiations will influence contractor selection and execution approaches.
Despite near-term challenges, recent developments indicate market resilience. Petrobras' SEAP tender (P-81 and P-87) received multiple offers in 2024, with at least one award expected. This represents critical progress for SEAP, with the P-87 targeting start-up in 2030. UK-headquartered major Shell's Gato do Mato award to Modec resolved years of development delays, validating pre-salt economics despite cost pressures. The project's 25% local content target reflects a pragmatic operator approach, balancing domestic participation with execution efficiency.
Stabroek still a star
ExxonMobil's Stabroek execution provides regional stability, maintaining approximately one FPSO award annually. Hammerhead continues the cadence established by the previously awarded One Guyana, Errea Wittu and Jaguar units. The Longtail, Haimara, Bluefin, and Fangtooth pipeline through 2030 ensures sustained activity, with the Longtail project expected to be awarded this year at an estimated cost of $2.5 billion. This consistent pace provides contractors with multi-year visibility and supports yard planning. TotalEnergies' Krabdagu FPSO marks Suriname's emergence in the FPSO segment, with the Gran Morgu field requiring 50,000 tonnes of topside complexity, comparable to Brazil’s pre-salt. The project's water depth of between 600 and 800 meters and gas-processing requirement of 500 million cubic feet per day position it as a technical analogue to developments in Brazil. Israel-based Navitas Petroleum's final investment decision (FID) on redeploying the Aoka Mizu demonstrates frontier market activation in the Falklands, although the conversion approach reflects smaller field scale compared to Brazil and Guyana mega-projects.
Looking ahead, we anticipate 15 additional awards through 2030, although average unit sizes will likely decrease from the ultra-large cycle between 2021 and 2024. Petrobras' future projects may trend towards 150,000 to 180,000 bpd rather than 225,000 bpd. The to-be-awarded pipeline – including the P-86, P-88, P-91, Mero 5, Tupi revitalization, Neon, and Barracuda-Caratinga – represents diverse technical profiles reflecting evolved market conditions. Besides macro-economic challenges, industry-wide equipment lead times for gas turbines and compressors have stretched from 12 to 60 months, forcing operators to advance long-lead procurement before FIDs. While challenges persist, South America's resource base, operator commitment and contractor capabilities ensure continued global FPSO leadership through the end of this decade.
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Thais Vachala
Vice President, Supply Chain Research
thais.vachala@rystadenergy.com
Bhoomi Shah
Analyst, Supply Chain Research
bhoomi.shah@rystadenergy.com